Don't make assumptions about Chinese mood

PAKATAN Harapan leaders have had a difficult year but for the first time in months, their mood lifted on seeing the turnout at the launch of their Johor election machinery in Batu Pahat.

They did not expect such a massive crowd on Saturday evening. All the seats were filled before the event could begin and hundreds more were milling around the tents.

Pakatan leaders had begun to doubt themselves after all the bashing over undelivered promises and they were completely overwhelmed by relief, gratitude and, well, hope that it was not game over for them.

Some Chinese described the scene as "ren san, ren hai," which means "a mountain of people, a sea of people".

It has been ages since Pakatan could draw a mountain or sea of people. Moreover, it was what one might describe as an organic crowd rather than party operatives in party attire ferried in to fill the seats.

Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim was in his element, his people skills were on overdrive as he mingled with the crowd and even the group playing Malay musical instruments.

Earlier in the afternoon, Anwar, accompanied by Pasir Gudang MP Hassan Karim, had called on Syed Hamid Ali, an old comrade from their student days and now living near Batu Pahat.

They rambled on about old times and Anwar recalled Syed Hamid lending him a red jacket that he had misplaced.

The Prime Minister and DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke also banged on a gigantic drum plastered with the Pakatan logo – if that was to signify a war drum, then these guys mean business.

It was a night when Pakatan stole the thunder from Umno, which had thus far dominated election headlines in the state.

Umno celebrated its 80th anniversary in Johor Baru, where party leaders posed with the Sultan of Johor on the palace steps.

It was a reminder to Malays that Umno was born on the steps of the palace and more significantly, that the Johor palace is stoically with the party.

The Johor palace makes no pretence about where it stands on the political spectrum. It is proud that Johor is the only Barisan Nasional-controlled state in the country and intends to keep it that way.

It is also no secret that the decision not to involve Pakatan at any level of the state government since 2022 has something to do with the palace.

"The ties between the palace and Umno are stronger than ever," said Segamat Umno deputy chief Datuk Bastien Onn.

Bastien said it was highly symbolic that the Johor legislative assembly was dissolved on the King's official birthday.

"No need to elaborate on what Tuanku said in his speech. We understand what he is telling us," said Bastien.

Meanwhile, the massive turnout in Batu Pahat was a huge morale-booster for Pakatan.

Crowd size does not necessarily translate into votes but it does suggest that although the Chinese are not as in love with Pakatan as before, they are not ready to throw DAP under the bus.

But there was a glaring problem about the Batu Pahat crowd – it was almost an entirely Chinese crowd, with few Malays or Indians.

That is not the best of optics and it is also worrying for PKR and Amanah, which has to contest in Malay-majority seats.

In that sense, asking DAP's Marina Ibrahim to move from Skudai to contest Tiram, which is currently held by Umno, was as good as ending the career of the most attractive elected representative in DAP.

State DAP chairman Teo Nie Ching was slammed for offering Marina a post in a statutory body if she lost, a move which former Pulai MP Datuk Seri Nur Jazlan Mohamed described as a "Standard 6 mistake".

Pakatan's survival in Johor rests on the Chinese voters and it is about holding on to what it has.

The Chinese disappointment with the Madani government is still there. Ripples from Selangor's ban on pig farming and rules on non-Muslim places of worship have spread beyond Selangor.

According to a lawyer who advises several Chinese organisations, these issues have brought about what he calls a "reverse psychology" effect on the Chinese.

"They are very upset with Pakatan but they say that if we don't come out to vote, the other side will get bigger, stronger and bolder while our voice gets smaller. They argue that they must defend what they believe in," said the above lawyer.

However, the lawyer said that these are early days and things may change once the actual campaign starts.

Voter turnout in the 2022 Johor snap election was very low.

Will Johoreans, many of whom work in Singapore, take the trouble to return to vote? It is also unclear where the Undi18 cohort will swing.

So many questions and so few answers. But what is apparent is that a clear line is forming between Malay and Chinese sentiments.

> The views expressed here are entirely the writer's own