WARSAW, Nov 2 (Reuters) - A crisis over the appointment of judges to Poland's Constitutional Tribunal over the weekend has pushed a simmering conflict between the country's nationalist president and the pro-European government into open confrontation.
How it plays out over the coming days or weeks could have a significant impact on next year's parliamentary election and potentially push Poland closer to US President Donald Trump and away from the European mainstream.
Tensions came to a head last week when the president of the Constitutional Tribunal, allied with President Karol Nawrocki's nationalists, was suspended and crowds gathered outside the court in support of him.
HOW DID IT START?
The dispute dates back to 2015, when the then-ruling nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party sought to appoint Constitutional Tribunal judges to seats already filled by the previous government.
Its nominees gained a majority, while critics at home and abroad argued that the court no longer met the standards of an independent and impartial tribunal established by law.
After Prime Minister Donald Tusk's coalition took office in 2023, it pledged to restore the rule of law and reform the court. However, Nawrocki, a PiS ally who was elected president in 2025, has blocked some of those efforts.
Earlier this year, Nawrocki refused to swear in several judges nominated by the parliamentary majority, while Constitutional Tribunal President Bogdan Swieczkowski denied the new judges access to the court.
WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK?
While heading to Africa on an official visit last Friday, Nawrocki suddenly decided to reverse course and fly home after a statement appeared on the tribunal's website saying its longest-serving judge, Anna Korwin-Piotrowska, had suspended Swieczkowski and had taken charge.
Police have been guarding the court since Friday afternoon, while several hundred protesters have demanded Swieczkowski's reinstatement.
Once back in Warsaw, Nawrocki met senior judges overnight and political leaders on Saturday, accusing the government of staging a forced takeover of the tribunal.
Tusk said in a televised address on Saturday that the court would now function independently and in line with Poland's constitution.
WHAT COULD HAPPEN NEXT?
A general assembly of Constitutional Tribunal judges chaired by Korwin-Piotrowska is scheduled for Tuesday, but its ability to make decisions will depend on securing a quorum of 10 of the court's 15 judges.
The latest events took place a year before Poland's next parliamentary election, when Tusk's pro-European coalition will face several hard-right parties who support the president's position.
Some political observers say any further escalation could galvanise voters on both sides ahead of the vote.
But the conflict over the tribunal has also shown the fragmented hard-right section of the political spectrum coming together, increasing the election challenge for Tusk.
"It's not a conflict about the tribunal, everything is at stake," political scientist Anna Materska-Sosnowska from Warsaw University said.
WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR POLAND'S TIES WITH THE EU AND THE US?
Tusk's Civic Coalition party is ahead in polls but may struggle to form a ruling majority.
Poland would likely shift closer to the Trump administration if Tusk loses power next year, as the country's hard right shares many of the US president's conservative values.
The US ambassador in Warsaw, Tom Rose, a Trump appointee, said on X it was not his place to interfere in Poland's internal affairs but expressed concern for its stability, security and democratic future.
The European Commission said on Saturday it was closely monitoring developments and that Polish authorities must ensure the tribunal can function in accordance with the constitution and EU law.
The EU withheld billions of euros in funds to Poland during the nationalist PiS-led governments of 2015 to 2023, saying their judiciary reforms had subverted democratic checks and balances.
Relations with the Tusk administration have been much smoother and the flow of funds to Poland resumed.
A prolonged dispute could raise institutional risks and weigh on assessments of Poland's creditworthiness, economists at Polish bank PKO BP said in a report on Monday.
Rating agencies have previously said the political gridlock between Tusk and Nawrocki on a range of issues was hurting Poland's credit profile.
(Reporting by Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk, Pawel Florkiewicz and Marek Strzelecki; Editing by Gareth Jones)
