SOFIA, Oct. 26 (Xinhua) -- Bulgaria's presidential election is heading for a closely contested runoff on Nov. 1 after incumbent President Iliana Iotova finished the first round ahead of former caretaker Prime Minister Andrey Gurov by a much narrower margin than pre-election polls had predicted.
Iotova and running mate Kiril Valchev received 34.76 percent of the vote in Sunday's election while Gurov and Georgi Kandev secured 31.95 percent. Under Bulgaria's constitutional rules, a candidate wins in the first round only by securing more than half of the valid votes, provided turnout exceeds 50 percent.
WHERE THINGS STAND
Iotova is running as an independent but has the backing of Progressive Bulgaria, which was founded and led by Prime Minister Rumen Radev. She served as vice president alongside Radev for nearly two full terms before he stepped down in January to enter party politics.
Gurov is backed by the reformist opposition coalition We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria. His campaign has emphasized preserving Bulgaria's Euro-Atlantic orientation and advancing judicial reform.
Turnout stood at approximately 22.5 percent, down sharply from 40.5 percent in the previous presidential election in 2021. Meanwhile, 4.43 percent of voters selected the "I do not support anyone" option, nearly double the 2.27 percent recorded in the first round of the 2021 election.
The low turnout has emerged as the election's most consequential feature. Lyuboslav Kostov, a member of Iotova's initiative committee, told Bulgarian television channel NOVA that voters had effectively "showed a red card to the entire political class by refusing to vote."
GERB leader Boyko Borissov voiced a similar assessment after casting his ballot, saying voters "do not see anyone who can unite the nation" and see only party candidates with "nothing that could stir any emotion."
Dobromir Zhivkov, a sociologist at Market Links, attributed the result to accumulated public frustration, economic concerns over prices and incomes, and criticism of the authorities' handling of major domestic and international developments.
That disillusionment has deep roots. At the end of 2025, Bulgaria experienced its largest wave of youth-led protests in more than a decade, with more than 100,000 people rallying in Sofia alone. What began as opposition to proposed tax and social-contribution increases broadened into a challenge to corruption and political stagnation. The protests culminated in the government's resignation on Dec. 11, less than a year after it took office.
Several other factors help explain why Iotova failed to establish the commanding lead anticipated by pre-election polling.
Backing from the governing camp did not automatically translate into sufficient voter participation. Just as political analyst Ruza Reicheva has said to Darik Radio that Iotova's campaign headquarters had "underestimated the need to mobilize voters," while Gurov's camp had done more to consolidate its support.
Gurov's reformist coalition draws support from relatively established voting blocs in the capital and among urban middle-class voters. A substantial share of Iotova's support, by contrast, comes from "occasional voters" who may be more inclined to stay home when a campaign fails to generate urgency. Kolio Kolev, a sociologist at the Mediana polling agency, argued on television that forecasts of a comfortable Iotova lead may have further discouraged participation by creating the impression that the first round was a foregone conclusion.
Furthermore, Gurov's support for closer cooperation with Kyiv and his firm commitment to the EU and NATO may help him secure a share of the vote. Mariyan Sabev, a senior security analyst at the Center for the Study of Democracy, noted that a president cannot unilaterally reverse Bulgaria's EU and NATO membership but can influence how consistently the country fulfills its commitments.
WHAT IS NEXT
Iotova retains a narrow numerical advantage, but the small gap between the candidates and the low level of participation make the outcome difficult to predict.
Following the first round, Iotova said she had voted for "an end to the division and hatred among us," stressing that "more than ever, Bulgarians need understanding, dialogue and unity" and the next president should be "a unifying force" between citizens and institutions. Gurov has framed the race as being about "a Bulgaria facing the future -- European, free and proud."
The runoff is likely to hinge on whether either candidate can expand participation, attract undecided voters and appeal to citizens who rejected the available choices in the first round.
The result represents a setback for the governing camp's political momentum, but it does not immediately threaten the government's survival. Progressive Bulgaria holds an absolute majority of 131 seats in the 240-member parliament elected in April, meaning the government's parliamentary position does not depend on the presidential outcome.
Nevertheless, an election expected to deliver a decisive outcome has laid bare the country's deeper challenges, including low levels of political trust, economic concerns and pronounced social divisions. Regardless of who wins on Nov. 1, rebuilding public confidence in state institutions and restoring the presidency's role as a unifying force will be among the next president's most pressing challenges.
