ROME, Oct 8 (Reuters) - A new electoral law approved by Italy's parliament on Thursday was conceived by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's coalition as a way to cement its grip on power after the next election, opposition politicians say.
Yet analysts say the reform, which rewards broad alliances rather than individual parties, could ultimately benefit Meloni's centre-left foes if they can overcome their internal divisions and rally behind a single leader.
The reform gives a parliamentary majority bonus to the largest alliance if it wins more than 42% of the vote, encouraging rival parties to join forces before an election.Meloni says it is intended to increase the prospect of stable government.
OPPOSITION RIVALS CLASH OVER LEADERSHIP
When Meloni drew up the bill, her own conservative coalition was ahead in the polls, but its advantage has been eroded by the emergence of a new far-right group, National Future, allowing a cluster of centre-left parties to edge ahead.
However, a requirement in the new law for coalitions to nominate their candidate for prime minister before any election has laid bare divisions between Elly Schlein and Giuseppe Conte, the leaders of the two main opposition groups, the Democratic Party (PD) and the 5-Star Movement.
"The leadership belongs to the party that gets one vote more. That's not hegemony, it's democracy," Schlein, 41, told a PD meeting last week, making clear she believes the largest opposition force should lead the alliance.
"If there are those who do not recognise this democratic principle, then we will hold primaries," she added.
Conte is indeed pushing for primaries, arguing that voters, not party rankings, should choose the coalition's candidate for prime minister. But a showdown would expose sharp policy differences within the centre-left bloc and personal rivalries.
"Primaries will probably make life worse for the left, because they are a contest in which one person says, 'I’m better than the other,' and that doesn't make cooperation any easier," said Piero Ignazi, a professor of comparative politics at the University of Bologna.
Schlein struck a defiant note in parliament on Thursday as the reform was approved despite centre-left opposition.
"Go ahead and change the electoral law, we will win in any case under any voting system,"Schlein said.
SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE DIVIDES THE LEFT
Conte, 62, was prime minister from 2018 to 2021 in back-to-back administrations and has made it clear he wants his old job back. He spent much of the summer courting left-wing voters and challenging PD policy positions -- particularly the group's continued support for helping Ukraine's war effort.
Schlein, who has no national government experience, says the PD's lead over its opposition allies in opinion polls means its views must be given more weight.
Latest polls put the PD on about 20% against 12.5% for 5-Star, making it the second most popular party in Italy afterMeloni's Brothers of Italy, which is on around 28%.
Alessandro Di Battista, a former senior 5-Star politician who no longer belongs to the party but retains a following among its supporters, said Schlein would struggle to win over parts of the 5-Star base.
"There is a section of citizens who support the 5-Star Movement who wouldn't vote for Schlein even under torture," he told Canale 9 television on Saturday.
Warning that the increasingly bitter rivalry between Schlein and Conte risked playing into the government's hands, he added: "Meloni is already the favourite ... but if they continue like this they may as well not hold the election."
However, Ignazi predicted that despite 5-Star doubts over her leadership credentials, Schlein would win an eventual primary.
"The Democratic Party has many more supporters, who are much more active than 5-Star, so she is the clear favourite," he said.
LESSONS FROM 2022 DEFEAT
The last national election in 2022 used a hybrid voting system that mixed proportional representation with first-past-the-post constituencies dotted around the country.
The PD and 5-Star did not run together, dividing the opposition vote and handing power to the conservative bloc, an experience former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi says should galvanise rather than discourage the opposition.
Renzi, whose small centrist party hopes to join a future centre-left alliance, urged the opposition to embrace any primary contest as a way to expand the coalition's appeal rather than allow it to shred their sense of unity.
"Let's get moving, organise these blessed primaries and turn them into a celebration of democracy," he said last month.
(Reporting by Crispian BalmerEditing by Keith Weir)
