Lula ahead in polls for Brazil's first-round vote; runoff likely


Brazilian presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) greets people during a campaign rally, one day before the general election, in Santa Barbara do Oeste, Brazil, October 3, 2026. REUTERS/Alexandre Meneghini

SAO PAULO, Oct 3 (Reuters) - ⁠A series of polls on Saturday showed Brazilian ⁠President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva slightly ahead of ‌Senator Flavio Bolsonaro before Sunday's first-round vote, and a close race in a likely runoff between the leftist incumbent and his right-wing challenger.

If no ​candidate wins more than 50% of valid ⁠votes -- which exclude blank ⁠and null ballots -- on Sunday, the two frontrunners advance to a ⁠second-round ‌runoff on October 25.

CNT/MDA POLL

• First round (valid votes): Lula 47.8%, Bolsonaro 42.1%, Augusto Cury 3.6%, Ronaldo ⁠Caiado 3.4%, Renan Santos 1.7%, Romeu Zema 0.9%

• ​Runoff: Lula 47.3%, ‌Bolsonaro 43.1%

• MDA surveyed 2,007 people from September 30 ⁠to October ​2; margin of error of 2.2 percentage points

DATAFOLHA

• First round (valid votes): Lula 45%, Bolsonaro 42%, Caiado 4%, Santos 3%, Cury 3%, Zema ⁠1%

• Runoff: Lula 47%, Bolsonaro 46%

• ​Datafolha surveyed 4,006 people from October 2-3; margin of error 2 percentage points

QUAEST POLL

• First round (valid votes): Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 45%, ⁠Cury 3%, Santos 3%, Caiado 3%

• Runoff: Bolsonaro 44%, Lula 42%

• Quaest surveyed 3,702 people from October 2-3; margin of error 2 percentage points

ATLASINTEL/BLOOMBERG POLL

• First round (valid votes): Lula 47%, ​Bolsonaro 44.1%, Santos 4.6%, Cury 2.1%, ⁠Caiado 1.4%

• Runoff: Lula 47.6%, Bolsonaro 47.4%

• AtlasIntel surveyed 4,945 people ​from September 27 to October 2; ‌margin of error 1 percentage point

(Reporting ​by Eduardo Simoes, Gabriel Araujo, Pedro Fonseca and Alexandre Caverni; Editing by Alison Williams and Chizu Nomiyama)

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