DAUGAVPILS, Latvia, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Latvia's staunchly pro-Ukraine Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs is likely to retain power after Saturday's national election, as many voters grow wary of potential Russian aggression amid airspace incursions that brought down the previous coalition.
Kulbergs, 47, a former racing driver, came to power in May after a previous coalition crumbled over its handling of incidents in which stray military drones flew undetected into Latvia. Though the drones were Ukrainian, officials have blamed Russia for causing them to divert from their flight paths.
Baltic officials have warned for months Russia is mounting sabotage, cyber- and other hybrid attacks across Europe to erode support for Ukraine and sow fear, although they dismiss concerns it is capable of launching a direct assault on NATO.
Russia says such accusations are baseless and the result of anti-Russian hysteria.
Throughout his campaign, Kulbergs has promised "unwavering support to Ukraine" and more anti-drone capabilities for Latvia.
Polls open at 8 a.m. (0500 GMT) on Saturday and close at 8 p.m., with the first results expected within hours and the final result likely to be clear after midnight.
COALITION-BUILDING LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT
Kulbergs' centrist United List party leads the polls, though with only 14.4% of the vote, and putting a coalition together will likely be a tough task, with seven parties expected to win seats in parliament.
"The Ukraine war has divided our society. A lot of people do not share the same outlook," Kulbergs told Reuters in the capital Riga on Wednesday.
"A pretty large part of society does not perceive Russia as a threat, they do not understand why the government is investing big money in defence ... They are mistaken."
The pro-Russian Sovereign Power, which draws support from Latvia's substantial Russian-speaking minority, is running second in opinion polls with 9.4%.
It pledges to stop help to Ukraine's war effort, and its leader Julia Stepanenko refused to state whether she supported economic sanctions on Russia. "Our voters want peace," she told Reuters.
Still, pollsters say many Latvians are disenchanted with the country's divisive politics, and one-third say they are undecided or would not vote.
The populist Latvia First party, founded by a tycoon with ties to Russian oligarchs, is running third in opinion polls and also appears to have attracted a growing number of pro-Russia voters, with a campaign promising to bridge gaps between ethnic Latvians and Russians.
"Latvian Russians are generally pro-Russia, but in the 2022 election, they mostly stayed away, embarrassed by the war," said Arnis Kaktins, a pollster. "If they show up to vote this time, parties with pro-Russian orientation will do well."
SOCIETY ON EDGE
Latvia, with a population of 1.9 million, is sandwiched between the Baltic Sea and its two European Union and NATO allies Estonia and Lithuania to the north and south, with Russia and Belarus to the east.
The precariousness of its geography is clear in Daugavpils, a town of 94,000 located 24 kilometres (15 miles) from Lithuania and 33 km from Belarus. Riga, away on the Baltic shore, feels distant.
Ethnic Russians account for about a third of Riga's population and half of residents in Daugavpils, Latvia's second-largest city.
Andzela, 59, a music teacher who declined to give her last name, said she lost her job after failing a Latvian language exam.
She hopes the next parliament removes the requirement, one of many policies taken since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 aimed at limiting the influence of Russia in public life.
Her sense of being neglected by policymakers is shared by many, and drives the appeal of Sovereign Power and Latvia First, said local journalist Inna Plavoka.
"They tell them: we will save the Russian language, you won't have to learn Latvian, you will be able to go to Russia again for cheap fuel and cheap food," she said. "And let's not give money to Ukraine, give it to elderly people here instead."
Daugavpils activist Olga Petkevica said she recently joined Latvia First hoping it becomes a coalition kingmaker and moves Latvia towards a more pragmatic relationship with Russia.
"I am not saying Ukraine is bad or Russia is good ... I look at our lives and we are not well... yes, they have war over there, but we live worse here," she said.
Back in Riga, Ruta Slavinska, a 60-year-old finance director at an advertising agency, is undecided who she will vote for. "The threat, of course, is simple – a threat to Latvia's freedom."
(Editing by Justyna Pawlak and Alex Richardson)
