RIGA, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs' centrist United List is expected to win the largest share of seats in Saturday's parliamentary election but is unlikely to secure an outright majority and will need to cobble together a coalition.
Security concerns and cost of living issues have dominated the election agenda in Latvia, a NATO and European Union member state which borders Russia and is home to a significant Russian-speaking minority.
The latest SKDS/LSM opinion poll indicates that seven of the 14 parties contesting the election have a chance of winning more than 5% of votes cast and thus enter the 100-seat parliament.
Kulbergs presides over a broad coalition with New Unity, National Alliance and the Greens and Farmers' Union, formed after Evika Silina's government collapsed over its handling of Ukrainian military drones entering Latvia's airspace, a consequence of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
But in a sign of public disenchantment with politics, one third of those polled said they were either undecided or did not intend to vote, making the final outcome uncertain.
A high proportion of non-voters and of ballots cast for parties that fail to clear the 5% threshold means the parties that do enter parliament will ultimately receive a larger share of seats than the poll figures imply.
The following parties are seen as having the best chance of winning seats in the October 3 election, according to a September 4 to 16 poll by SKDS/LSM:
UNITED LIST (14.4%)
The centrist grouping of smaller parties was an also-ran in the 2022 election, and a junior coalition partner in 2022-2023. Its popularity soared in polls after backbencher Kulbergs was appointed prime minister in May this year.
A former racing driver with a hawkish stance towards Russia and a strong supporter of Ukraine, Kulbergs has a good chance of staying in power, polls show.
SOVEREIGN POWER & ALLIANCE OF YOUNG LATVIANS (9.4%)
This centre-left group was established in 2022 by politicians who were expelled from another party for refusing to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It seeks to attract the ethnic Russian minority vote.
LATVIA FIRST (9.2%)
The founder and leader of the centre-right Latvia First, veteran populist tycoon Ainars Slesers, has had business ties with Russian oligarchs. He is courting Russian-speaking voters by recruiting ethnic Russian politicians to his party and promising a more conciliatory approach toward the largest minority.
PROGRESSIVES (6.2%)
This left-leaning party is backed largely by young, socially progressive voters, founded in 2017. It was part of the government coalition until May after winning seats in 2022.
NATIONAL ALLIANCE (5.6%)
A nationalist party founded in 2010, it campaigns on a promise to protect family and traditional values. It was part of the ruling coalitions from 2019 to 2023 and joined Kulbergs' coalition this year. It promotes a hardline approach towards Russia and Latvia's Russian minority.
GREENS AND FARMERS' UNION (4.8%)
A coalition of conservative groups, it has been part of the current governing coalition since 2023.
NEW UNITY (4.3%)
The centre-right party won the election in 2022 and held the prime minister's post until May 2026, when Silina's government collapsed. It is at risk of winning no seats.
(Editing by Terje Solsvik and Gareth Jones)
