El Niño likely to intensify, may become strongest ever recorded, WMO says


A ship transits the Panama Canal near the Gamboa hydrometeorological monitoring station as a lack of rainfall linked to El Nino affects the water levels, in Gamboa, Panama, August 27, 2026. REUTERS/Enea Lebrun

GENEVA, Sept 3 (Reuters) - The El ⁠Niño weather phenomenon is set to intensify further into 2027 and could be ⁠the strongest ever, raising risks of extreme weather into next year, the ‌World Meteorological Organization said on Thursday.

• "If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began. So literally off the charts we have used for the past four decades," WMO Secretary-General Celeste ​Saulo told a Geneva press conference.

• TheU.N. weather agency ⁠said its forecasts showed a near ⁠100% likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027, fuelled by exceptionally warm ⁠Pacific ‌Ocean temperatures. This is the first time it has expressed such a degree of certainty, the WMO said.

• A very strong El Niño cansignificantly shift rainfall ⁠and temperature patterns worldwide, and fuel extreme weather, like typhoons.

• "El ​Niño is being supersized ‌before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: The planet is ⁠in uncharted waters, ​and those waters are heating up," said United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

• El Niño is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific caused by weakening trade winds. ⁠It occurs naturally every two to seven years and ​tends to last up to 12 months, causing intense rains and droughts across Latin America.

• This year's phenomenon has already had an impact on soft commodities in tropical areas, causing ⁠a severe food crisis across Central America's Dry Corridor.

• It is set to peak towards the end of this year, the WMO said in a statement. But its effects will continue into 2027 and are set to leave higher global temperatures next year in ​its wake, Saulo said.

• Saulo said the WMO was ⁠stepping up preparedness and early warning efforts in preparation.

• "WMO is committed to working closely with ​partners across the United Nations and humanitarian system to ‌provide the climate intelligence and insights needed to ​support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water resources," she said.

(Reporting by Emma Farge; Editing by Miranda Murray and Alison Williams)

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