WINDHOEK, Aug. 27 (Xinhua) -- A strong El Nino event is expected to be a key driver of contrasting rainfall patterns across Southern Africa during the 2026/27 rainy season, with drier conditions likely in central and southern areas and wetter conditions forecast for northern parts of the region, according to the latest regional climate outlook released Thursday.
The outlook was developed by climate experts from national meteorological and hydrological services at the 33rd Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-33) in the coastal town of Swakopmund in western Namibia.
From October to December 2026, below-normal rainfall is likely across the bulk of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. However, normal to above-normal rainfall is forecast for most of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), northwestern Angola, northern Zambia, central Malawi, northern Mozambique, the southern fringes of Tanzania and Comoros.
Above-normal rainfall is expected in eastern DRC, most of Tanzania, the extreme northern parts of Malawi and Zambia, and Seychelles.
The north-south contrast is forecast to become more pronounced from January to March 2027, with below-normal rainfall expected across most central and southern areas, particularly Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia and parts of South Africa.
Meanwhile, normal to above-normal rainfall is forecast for northern areas, including the DRC, northern Zambia, northern Malawi, northern Mozambique, parts of Tanzania and Seychelles, with above-normal rainfall particularly favored in eastern Tanzania and Comoros.
Temperatures are expected to remain mostly above long-term averages across the SADC region from October 2026 to January 2027, although some central areas may experience cooler-than-usual conditions.
The statement identified El Nino, the Indian Ocean Dipole and the Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole as major climate drivers during the coming season. It said the strong El Nino event could intensify into what it described as "the strongest event in living memory."
SARCOF-33 is being held from Tuesday to Friday to support regional preparedness, planning and early action ahead of the coming rainy season.
