Lula retains lead over Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election, Datafolha shows


Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva launches his re-election campaign at Primeiro de Maio Stadium in Sao Bernardo do Campo, Brazil, August 16, 2026. REUTERS/Adriano Machado

SAO PAULO, Aug 21 (Reuters) - ⁠Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva continues to lead ⁠Senator Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of the October election, although ‌the right-wing challenger has narrowed the gap by one percentage point, a change within the error margin, a Datafolha poll showed on Friday.

In a simulated second-round runoff, ​Lula would receive 47% of the vote ⁠against Bolsonaro's 43%, according to ⁠Datafolha, which has an error margin of two percentage points. In ⁠July, ‌Lula led Senator Bolsonaro, son of ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, by 48% to 43%.

• In a first-round scenario, Lula leads ⁠with 39% of the votes, followed by Bolsonaro (33%), ​Ronaldo Caiado (5%), Renan ‌Santos (4%), and Romeu Zema (3%).

• If no candidate wins more than ⁠50% of valid ​votes in the first round, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff, which has happened in every presidential election since 2002.

• Lula's approval ⁠rating fell to 47%, Datafolha showed, from ​49% in July, while his disapproval rate rose to 50% from 48%.

• This was the first Datafolha poll released since the start of ⁠the official campaign, when candidates are legally allowed to actively seek votes.

• It was also the first Datafolha poll after Brazil's Supreme Court authorized Federal Police to investigate Lula's eldest son on suspicion ​of illicit business dealings involving the federal ⁠government.

• Senator Bolsonaro saw his poll numbers fall after the revelation in ​May that he asked a now-jailed banker ‌to finance a film about his ​father.

• Datafolha surveyed 2,058 people starting on August 18.

(Reporting by Andre Romani; Editing by Chris Reese and Natalia Siniawski)

Follow us on our official WhatsApp channel for breaking news alerts and key updates!

Others Also Read