BERLIN, Aug. 20 (Xinhua) -- Climate change could almost triple the area burned by wildfires across Europe by the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario, as hotter, drier and windier conditions increase fire risks, according to a study released Thursday by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).
The scale of the increase will depend largely on future emissions and the extent of global warming. Under a low-emissions scenario, the annual area burned is projected to increase by around 39 percent by the end of the century, while under a high-emissions scenario, the increase could reach 192 percent, the study found.
"Climate change is driving up fire activity across Europe as hot, dry and windy conditions become more severe," said Maik Billing, a PIK researcher and lead author of the study, which was published in the journal Global Change Biology.
Billing said widespread increases in burned area could occur even with relatively low warming of around 1.8 degrees Celsius.
"But if we emit more, and global temperatures rise by roughly 3.6 degrees Celsius, we see fires become much more prevalent, especially around the Mediterranean and across much of Western and Central Europe, including areas that to date have not experienced many fires," Billing said.
The findings come amid another severe wildfire season in Europe. Around 550,000 hectares had burned across the European Union as of Aug. 12, about 2.5 times the 20-year average for this point in the year, according to the European Forest Fire Information System.
"The fires in France, Spain and Greece show how quickly hot, dry and windy weather conditions can stretch firefighters and their resources," said Kirsten Thonicke, a PIK scientist and co-author of the study.
As climate change intensifies such conditions, firefighting capabilities could eventually reach their limits when fires grow beyond a certain scale, Thonicke said, stressing the need for both emissions reductions and stronger local fire management.
