Lula leads Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil election poll


Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva attends a ceremony at the Planalto Palace in Brasilia, Brazil, July 20, 2026. REUTERS/Adriano Machado

SAO PAULO, July ⁠24 (Reuters) - Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ⁠maintained his lead over opposition senator Flavio Bolsonaro ‌in a new Datafolha poll released on Friday ahead of Brazil's October presidential election.

Lula would defeat the senator, son of former ​President Jair Bolsonaro, in a potential ⁠runoff by 48% to ⁠43%, the poll showed. A June survey showed Lula ahead ⁠by ‌47% to 43%.

• In a first-round scenario Lula would lead with 40% of the ⁠votes, followed by Bolsonaro at 32%, Ronaldo Caiado ​at 4%, ‌and Romeu Zema and Renan Santos each at ⁠3%.

• In ​Brazil, if no candidate gets more than 50% of valid votes, the two frontrunners go to a second-round vote.

• ⁠The poll follows a rift between ​Senator Bolsonaro and his stepmother, former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro.

• She accused him in June of "disrespecting" her by criticizing ⁠her role in party affairs; he publicly apologized to her this week.

• The poll was also conducted after the United States announced a 25% tariff on ​Brazilian goods last week, citing unfair ⁠trade practices, a charge Lula's administration rejects.

• Datafolha surveyed ​2,004 people between July 22-23. ‌The poll has a margin of ​error of 2 percentage points in either direction.

(Reporting by Andre Romani; Editing by Chris Reese)

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