ROME, June 26 (Reuters) - Matteo Salvini once earned the nickname "the captain" after steering his far-right League party to the forefront of Italian politics. Now, with support sliding, his grip is weakening — a shift that could erode Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's chances of re-election in a vote due next year.
The League, part of the governing right-wing coalition, is polling at 6%, a far cry from the 34% it captured at the 2019 European elections.
From that high point, the party steadily lost momentum, with its decline accelerating since February, when a former Salvini ally launched Futuro Nazionale, a splinter group that has outflanked the League on the right.
The decline of Salvini, once a defining figure of Europe's populist right, is reshaping the political landscape, weakening the right-wing camp as it prepares to face the centre-left opposition in a general election due in 2027.
MELONI'S DOMINANCE
Salvini was elected League leader in 2013, transforming it from a northern regional force into a national party and shunting it firmly to the far right, with calls to quit the euro and a pledge of zero tolerance for migrant arrivals.
The head of YouTrend pollster, Lorenzo Pregliasco, said Salvini's leadership was likely facing a natural decline after more than a decade, with the League's anti-establishment appeal being blunted by repeated spells in government since 2018.
"There are no leaders for all seasons," Pregliasco said.
According to YouTrend, Meloni's coalition, comprising Brothers of Italy, Forza Italia and the League, is trailing the centre-left, with the League's decline dragging on its allies, which have broadly maintained their own voter base.
Tensions are rising within the League. A party official, who asked not to be named, said once-routine internal meetings had become increasingly fraught, with members openly criticising Salvini and arguing amongst themselves.
The party is split between loyalists, including lawmakers who still back him, and those pushing for a return to its original focus on local communities in the wealthy north.
"Now that Salvini is under pressure, his internal rivals have gained some ground, but none has openly stepped forward," said Lorenzo De Sio, a political analyst at Luiss University.
POSSIBLE CONTENDERS WAITING IN THE NORTH
Italian media has speculated that Salvini might step down before the election. Potential successors include Luca Zaia, the former governor of Veneto around Venice, and Massimiliano Fedriga, the head of the Friuli-Venezia Giulia region.
Fedriga told Reuters that the party should prioritise a long-delayed reform granting greater autonomy to northern regions, with voters increasingly sceptical of slogans.
"Continuing to win small pockets of support with appealing but unrealistic promises ultimately leads to disappointment."
Riccardo Molinari, the League's leader in the lower house of parliament, defended the party's record in government but acknowledged Meloni's popularity had overshadowed Salvini.
"The League has done a good job, but it is not always recognised, as it is overshadowed by the dominance of the prime minister," Molinari told Reuters.
Salvini recently topped a vote among League supporters to choose the party's candidate for mayor of Milan in an election expected next year — seen by some as a potential exit route from national leadership.
LAST-DITCH ATTEMPT
Since Meloni took office in 2022, Salvini has served as transport minister. Persistent rail delays have dented his reputation, while a flagship project to build a bridge between the island of Sicily and Calabria has stalled.
In a bid to revive his fortunes, Salvini's allies have suggested reappointing him as interior minister, a role he held from 2018 to 2019, boosting the League's support through his anti-migrant policies.
The proposal drew a cool response within the coalition. Polls show migration is no longer a top concern for Italians, who are more focused on inflation amid the economic fallout from the Iran war.
Stefano Candiani, a senior League figure, said a push for regional autonomy alone would not be enough to revive the party.
"That was fine when the country was in good shape, not with the fuel prices rising," he said.
This week, a major rally planned for early July near Treviso was cancelled to allow more time to develop a relaunch strategy.
"Meetings are useful when there are clear ideas and shared goals, otherwise they are a waste of time, or worse. The League has lost its way and must quickly rediscover it," Treviso mayor and party member Mario Conte said.
(Reporting by Angelo Amante; Editing by Crispian Balmer and Ros Russell)
