BERLIN, March 22 (Reuters) - German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) held a lead over their centre-left Social Democrat (SPD) coalition partners in an election in the western state of Rhineland-Palatinate on Sunday, a forecast on public television showed.
The first forecast on the ARD broadcaster after polls closed showed the CDU at 30.5% of the vote, ahead of the SPD at 27%, pointing to a likely victory for Merz after his party narrowly lost an election in the neighbouring state of Baden-Wuerttemberg on March 8.
For Merz, battling to shore up Western support for Ukraine and facing the looming threat of an energy shock caused by the Iran war, victory in Rhineland-Palatinate would be a relief after the narrow loss his party suffered two weeks ago.
The result would be a heavy blow to his Berlin coalition partners in the SPD, still reeling from a disastrous score in Baden-Wuerttemberg, where they won just 5.5% of the vote, barely scraping over the threshold to enter parliament.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), now clearly established as Germany's second strongest party at the national level, was set to take 20% of the vote, in line with the result they scored in Baden-Wuerttemberg.
Depending on the final outcome, the CDU and the SPD may form a coalition at state level on the lines of the coalition in Berlin, with CDU candidate Gordon Schnieder on course to replace the sitting SPD premier, Alexander Schweitzer.
The Rhineland-Palatinate election was the second of five state elections this year, ahead of closely watched races in September in Berlin and the eastern states of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Saxony-Anhalt, where the far-right AfD is hoping to win its first major election.
(Reporting by James Mackenzie, Editing by Friederike Heine)
