Flavio Bolsonaro draws even with Lula in Brazil election matchup, Datafolha shows


Brazil's senator Flavio Bolsonaro gestures, as he takes part in a campaign rally, as a pre-candidate of the right-wing, ahead of the presidential elections, in Sao Paulo, Brazil, March 1, 2026. REUTERS/Jorge Silva

SAO PAULO, March 7 (Reuters) - ⁠A second-round runoff between Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula ⁠da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro would result in ‌a technical tie, according to a Datafolha poll released on Saturday.

The poll shows that if the runoff were held today, Lula would receive 46% of the ​vote, compared with 43% for Flavio, the ⁠eldest son of former President ⁠Jair Bolsonaro.

If Lula were to face off against Tarcisio de Freitas, ⁠governor ‌of the state of Sao Paulo, 45% of respondents said they would vote for Lula in the second ⁠round, while 42% would vote for de Freitas, ​also a technical ‌tie.

Brazil's general election is scheduled for October 4. If no ⁠presidential candidate ​receives a majority of the vote, the two candidates with the most votes will face off in a runoff on October 25.

According to ⁠the survey, Lula, 80, who will be ​vying for his fourth presidential term, leads in all first‑round scenarios. However, Flavio’s candidacy has gained strength since his name was put ⁠forward in December by Jair Bolsonaro, who is in jail.

Lula and Flavio, 44, also have the highest rejection rates in the poll. Some 46% of respondents said they would not vote for ​Lula under any circumstances, while 45% said ⁠the same about Flavio - another technical tie.

Datafolha interviewed 2,004 voters from ​Tuesday to Thursday in 137 municipalities. ‌The survey has a margin of ​error of two percentage points in either direction.

(Reporting by Leticia Fucuchima; Writing by Oliver Griffin; Editing by Rod Nickel)

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