JERUSALEM, Feb. 26 (Xinhua) -- Israeli researchers have identified a signal in the Aegean Sea that can help predict winter rainfall in the Eastern Mediterranean months in advance, offering a potential breakthrough for water management in the drought-prone region, the Hebrew University of Jerusalem said on Thursday.
The study, published in the journal Weather and Climate Dynamics, analyzed data from 1979 to 2023 and found that the surface temperature and heat absorption patterns in the Aegean Sea, located between Türkiye and Greece, serve as a reliable precursor for winter precipitation in the Levant.
Based on their findings, the researchers developed the Aegean Sea Heat Uptake Anomaly (AQA) index, which measures how much heat the sea releases or absorbs in August.
According to the study, years with a negative AQA, when the Aegean Sea releases more heat than usual into the atmosphere, typically lead to wetter winters. This strengthens the regional jet stream and prolongs rain-bearing "Cyprus Low" weather systems.
The researchers found that the AQA index is a more accurate predictor of Levant rainfall than larger-scale climate drivers like El Nino or the North Atlantic Oscillation.
With the Eastern Mediterranean experiencing severe warming and drying driven by climate change, the ability to forecast water availability months ahead could significantly improve planning and adaptation efforts in this water-stressed region, the researchers concluded.
