ROME, June 20 (Xinhua) -- Ageing and demographic decline in Italy will weigh on the country's pension system in the next ten years, putting the public pension scheme at risk of a major deficit, experts with the National Institute for Social Security (INPS) warned on Thursday.
If not reversed, this would cause the institute's balance sheets to drop from a positive balance of 23 billion euros (24.6 billion U.S. dollars) in 2023 to an estimated negative 45 billion euros in 2032, according to INPS policy and supervisory board (CIV).
Approximately 35 percent of the Italian population will be over 65 by 2050, INPS President Gabriele Fava said on Thursday.
"These two trends combined -- increased longevity and low fertility rate -- are at the root of the so-called inversion of the age pyramid," CIV chairperson Roberto Ghiselli told a parliamentary commission.
He specified the positive contribution of migration towards Italy would not be enough to counter this dynamic.
"The downward demographic trend is already causing a considerable imbalance between cohorts (of the population) who retired, or are close to retirement, and those entering the labour market, with a tendency to shrink in the active population," he explained.
The impact of demographic decline on welfare is already visible in Italy beyond pensions, and especially in the healthcare system, and represents a major worry for the public.
Italy's fertility rate is among the lowest in the European Union, decreasing from 1.24 children per woman in 2022 to 1.2 in 2023, according to Italy's National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) and the European Union's Eurostat service.
At the same time, life expectance at birth was 83.1 years last year, some six months longer than the previous year.
In a separate publication on Thursday, INPS said the latest estimates were not a novelty for the institute.
"We are dealing with a medium to long-term scenario that can only take shape in the absence of effective counter policies," INPS specified.
Among the actions enacted in order to counter this scenario, INPS mentioned the broadening of the contribution base, supported by recent labour market policies, and the government's focus on containing pension expenditure. (1 euro = 1.07 U.S. dollar)
