Analysis-Mexico presidential race has clear favorite, but pollsters say turnout key

A person holds up a placard with a cut-out of the presidential candidate of the ruling MORENA party Claudia Sheinbaum during her campaign rally in Mexico City, Mexico, May 22, 2024. REUTERS/Raquel Cunha/ File Photo

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Polls in Mexico have almost universally tapped ruling party hopeful Claudia Sheinbaum as the easy favorite to win the June 2 presidential election, but pollsters are keen to emphasize a major unknown - voter turnout.

Recent votes, including past presidential elections in Mexico, show that polling can significantly vary from election-day results because turnout is especially hard to predict, according to interviews with leading Mexican pollsters.