PETALING JAYA: The Melaka election will likely see a high voter turnout despite a festive break falling between nomination day and polling day, say analysts.
National Council of Professors Fellow Prof Dr Azmi Hassan said he expects a voter turnout of up to 70% due to high interest in the state polls, which he said could determine the future of cooperation between Umno and PAS.
“Well, I don’t think there will be election fatigue because it’s close to the Negri Sembilan and Johor state elections and also with Deepavali (which will fall on Nov 8),” he said.
The nomination for the Melaka election will be on Oct 31, with voting on Nov 14.
Prof Azmi said the Melaka polls will determine whether there will be an agreement between Umno and PAS after some teething problems at the Johor and Negri Sembilan elections.
“That will determine whether the cooperation between Umno and PAS will go ahead and continue until the 16th General Election (GE16) or whether it stops at Negri Sembilan.
“So I think this will be the opposite of fatigue; I think people are waiting for this particular state election,” he said.
Dr Azmil Tayeb, Associate Professor at the School of Social Sciences at Universiti Sains Malaysia, said Melaka’s proximity to Kuala Lumpur will encourage outstation voters to cast their ballots.
“As for turnout, we can expect it to be relatively high since Melaka is close to the Klang Valley, which means that outstation voters can easily go back to vote,” he said.
He said parties have been gearing up for the polls for some time now, adding that there has been sufficient time to prepare.
Asked whether election fatigue had already set in among voters, he said that some degree of voter fatigue is to be expected until GE16.
Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar said a turnout of between 60% and 65% was a reasonable target.
“In my view, November is still a suitable time for the Melaka election.
“However, the six-day gap between Deepavali and polling day on Nov 14 could influence the decision of out-of-state voters to return home to cast their ballots.
“Those who have already returned home to celebrate the festival may have to consider the cost and time involved in making a second trip to vote,” he said.
Hisommudin said even small changes in voter turnout could determine the outcome in closely contested seats.
“The impact will depend on the groups of voters affected and the parties’ ability to mobilise their supporters,” he said.
