PETALING JAYA: Almost five years since the Melaka polls, the battle lines are being redrawn and former rivals are now considering whether they are stronger together than apart, says analysts.
With Barisan Nasional preparing to hold talks with two groups, they say the arithmetic of any partnership goes beyond votes garnered in the previous contest.
Prof Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian said Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan Nasional appear to be the two main possibilities, although Barisan could also negotiate directly with PAS.
“The negotiations will be shaped by three considerations: seat allocation, the ability to attract additional voters and the political cost of compromising with a former rival,” he noted.
A Barisan-PAS arrangement, he added, could strengthen Malay-Muslim support, while a Barisan-Pakatan pact could broaden support across communities.
Sivamurugan said that although the political upheaval of 2021 would still linger, present electoral interests are likely to carry greater weight.
In October 2021, Pakatan accepted former Umno assemblymen Datuk Seri Idris Haron and Datuk Nor Azman Hassan after they withdrew support from the Barisan-led state government.
Their withdrawal of support triggered an early state election the following month.
Both subsequently lost, while PKR suffered a complete wipeout after losing all 11 seats it contested.
Barisan eventually swept 21 of Melaka’s 28 seats in 2021, with Pakatan winning five and Perikatan two.
Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said the previous incident made voter transferability particularly important when assessing the different combinations.
A Barisan-PAS arrangement could prevent Malay votes from being split, he said, while a Barisan-Pakatan combination would bring together Barisan’s Malay support with Pakatan’s stronger urban and non-Malay base.
However, he said neither combination represents a straightforward electoral arithmetic.
A Barisan-PAS arrangement could unsettle sections of Barisan’s grassroots, while direct Barisan-Pakatan cooperation could face resistance, particularly in traditional Umno areas.
“Barisan and Pakatan do not necessarily need a formal electoral pact or joint campaigning,” Tawfik said, adding that both could contest separately and cooperate after the election if they collectively secure a majority.
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Dr Azmi Hassan, meanwhile, believes PAS, rather than Perikatan as a whole, is more likely to negotiate with Barisan.
He said a Barisan-PAS arrangement could be electorally beneficial, particularly by reducing competition for Malay votes, but seat demands could become the sticking point.
“There is still a possibility that Barisan will work with Pakatan if PAS demands more than seven seats, which Umno cannot just give in to because those are their seats,” he said.
UiTM analyst C. Sara said any electoral arrangement should ultimately be assessed based on seats, taking into account seat allocation, vote transferability and the impact of three- or four-cornered contests.
“The 2021 result should not be treated as a 2026 forecast.”
In a 28-seat first-past-the-post contest, she said constituency-level vote distribution could matter more than simply comparing statewide vote shares.
