MELAKA: The battle for Melaka is set to intensify in 11 state constituencies where Barisan Nasional won by fewer than 1,000 votes in the 2021 state election.
Serkam recorded the narrowest result, with Barisan retaining the seat by only 79 votes.
This was followed by Pengkalan Batu, with a majority of 131 votes, and Duyong, with 200.
Other closely fought Barisan victories were Tanjung Bidara with a majority of 364 votes, Gadek and Durian Tunggal with 559 votes each, Paya Rumput with 629, Pantai Kundor with 827, Rembia with 860, Klebang with 876 and Machap Jaya with 938.
The Rembia incumbent, Datuk Muhammad Jailani Khamis, who won the seat on a Barisan-Umno ticket in 2021, has since joined PAS, which confirmed that he was accepted as a member on June 10, 2023.
Political insiders said the DAP-held seats of Kesidang and Ayer Keroh should also be considered hot seats because of their mixed ethnic composition and the likelihood of multi-cornered contests.
A Pakatan Harapan insider predicted that an electoral understanding with Bersatu could help the parties secure as many as 15 of the 28 seats.
He said DAP was expected to retain Kota Laksamana, Bandar Hilir and Kesidang.
However, Ayer Keroh could become a difficult battleground with Parti Bersama joining the contest.
Although Ayer Keroh has traditionally been contested by DAP, its mixed electorate and the presence of another contender could make the outcome harder to predict.
The insider placed Pakatan’s chances in Gadek and Bemban at 50-50, but was less confident about recapturing Duyong, despite Barisan winning it by only 200 votes in 2021.
“Pakatan doesn’t have much hope of wresting Duyong from Barisan.
“Its incumbent, Datuk Mohd Noor Helmy (Abdul Halem), is popular among his constituents, and DAP will face a difficult task there,” he said.
He added that PKR was confident of winning two of the 10 seats it planned to contest, while Amanah was expected to retain Bukit Katil.
A Barisan insider, however, offered a different assessment.
He said the political situation has changed significantly since the previous election, with the coalition spending the past three years strengthening its presence on the ground.
The insider said Melaka Barisan chairman Datuk Seri Ab Rauf Yusoh has maintained close contact with local communities through various programmes.
These included Wakil Rakyat Untuk Rakyat (WRUR), Hari Exco Bertemu Rakyat and Jelajah Ketua Menteri Sayang Rakyat, which were organised under the wider Melaka Sayang Rakyat initiative.
The programmes, he said, brought state executive councillors, assemblymen and government officials into local communities to listen to residents and address problems affecting them.
The insider believed Barisan would record larger majorities in Duyong, Tanjung Bidara, Klebang and Machap Jaya, saying the incumbents were well known and popular among their constituents.
He predicted that an electoral pact between Barisan and Perikatan Nasional could enable them to secure as many as 24 seats and form the state government with a comfortable majority.
Barisan’s commanding victory in 2021, however, masked a much closer contest on the ground.
Although the coalition won 21 of the 28 seats, it secured only 38.4% of the statewide vote – an increase of less than one percentage point from 2018.
The result showed how low turnout and multi-cornered contests helped Barisan turn several narrow victories into a dominant majority in the state assembly.
Voter turnout fell sharply from about 84.5% in 2018 to 65.85% in 2021.
Covid-19 concerns, strict campaigning rules, the reluctance of outstation voters to return and public fatigue over prolonged political instability were among the factors blamed for the decline.
The 2021 election was called after political instability saw Melaka undergo two changes of government in less than two years.
The Pakatan administration elected in 2018 collapsed after Bersatu left the coalition, while the administration led by then chief minister Datuk Seri Sulaiman Md Ali later lost its majority when four assemblymen withdrew their support.
With voter turnout expected to play a decisive role once again, the 11 marginal constituencies, along with Kesidang and Ayer Keroh, could determine whether Barisan maintains its dominance or its rivals turn their narrow defeats in 2021 into victories.
