PETALING JAYA: Strategy, not sentiment, must guide any Pakatan Harapan-Bersatu seat deal in Melaka, as the eventual allocation could determine whether the proposed pact succeeds or collapses, analysts say.
Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said cooperation could benefit both sides by preventing multi-cornered contests, particularly in Malay-majority and marginal seats.
“Pakatan and Bersatu need to be strategic, not emotional, in their seat allocation because ultimately, seat allocation will be the decisive factor,” he said yesterday.
Tawfik said Bersatu could help Pakatan improve its Malay support, while Pakatan could offer Bersatu a possible route back into government.
However, he said Pakatan supporters may question cooperation with Bersatu, while Bersatu’s leaders and grassroots could resist leaving Perikatan Nasional.
“The pact can only work if there is a clear agreement on seats, candidates and a common message to voters,” he said.
Tawfik said the most workable arrangement would be a limited seat-based understanding rather than a formal coalition, with both sides avoiding clashes in constituencies where one was stronger than the other.
He warned that separate campaigns would produce multi-cornered contests which could benefit Barisan Nasional because of its stronger machinery and incumbency advantage.
Political analyst Prof Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian agreed that a Pakatan-Bersatu pact was possible, although differences over leadership, trust and seat allocation would complicate matters.
He identified three possible configurations: a Pakatan-Bersatu arrangement which could also involve Muda; Barisan cooperating with partners such as PAS; or multi-cornered contests should negotiations fail.
“Seat allocation will be the key factor,” the Universiti Sains Malaysia academic said.
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Dr Azmi Hassan said Pakatan and Bersatu had little choice but to cooperate after their experience contesting separately in the recent Negri Sembilan election.
“Both thought they could go solo, but it proved impossible.
“Pakatan needs the Malay votes, and Bersatu can deliver the Malay votes. Bersatu, meanwhile, needs a bigger political organisation, which Pakatan can offer,” he said.
Azmi believed cooperation was also necessary because, in his assessment, an understanding between Barisan and Perikatan in Melaka was effectively settled.
However, he said Pakatan would likely command the majority of seats under any arrangement with Bersatu because it was the larger bloc and had incumbencies to defend.
The most difficult negotiations, he said, could centre on seats held by Umno, particularly several won by fewer than 1,000 votes.
“These are the seats that will be highly contested between Bersatu and Pakatan over who should challenge Umno,” Azmi said.
Pakatan Melaka chairman Adly Zahari recently confirmed that talks were underway with Bersatu and other like-minded parties to form a “PH Plus” arrangement for the state election.
