JOHOR BARU: Malaysia must prepare for the expected Super El Nino that is likely to also lead to potential water shortage, say climate experts.
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) Institute of Climate Change senior lecturer Dr Zulfaqar Sa’adi said the effects of the phenomenon can potentially become more severe in the months that follow.
“The World Meteorological Organisation and Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) estimate that a Super El Nino could hit us sometime between October and January 2027, which coincides with the northeast monsoon season when there is normally more rainfall,” he said.
While he believes there should be sufficient rain to replenish reservoirs during the northeast monsoon, which lasts from November to March, he is worried about the post-monsoon period, where peninsular Malaysia typically sees less rainfall, especially around March and April.
“If the Super El Nino reduces the amount of rainfall during the monsoon, there may not be enough water stored for the months to come,” he said in cautioning authorities to be mindful of this when carrying out controlled water releases from reservoirs before the monsoon.
“Controlled water releases are often carried out during the northeast monsoon in anticipation of heavy rainfall that could potentially cause floods.
“However, it is important to remember that this time, the northeast monsoon may coincide with Super El Nino, which could reduce rainfall. So, it is crucial to keep a close watch on weather forecasts before deciding whether to proceed with pre-emptive water releases,” he added.
As of yesterday, the Timah Tasoh dam in Perlis and Lebam dam in Johor recorded critical levels at 27.54% and 28.62% respectively.
Dams at Gunung Pulai 2 and Upper Layang in Johor, as well as the Ahning and Beris dams in Kedah, and Jus in Melaka, were at “alert” levels, while Kedah’s Muda Lake was at warning level.
Zulfaqar noted that Malaysia had experienced Super El Nino events in the past, including in 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and, most recently, 2015-2016, when parts of the country were also blanketed by haze.
El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon that warms sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, causing changes in wind, atmospheric pressure and rainfall patterns around the world.
Super El Nino refers to an exceptionally intense version in which surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean rise by 2°C or more.
Last Wednesday, MetMalaysia said a Super El Nino is expected to occur at the end of this year.
Universiti Malaya meteorologist Emeritus Prof Datuk Dr Azizan Abu Samah said the main concern during a Super El Nino would be transboundary haze rather than major flooding.
“Super El Nino will likely have a strong influence on the upcoming northeast monsoon season since it usually causes reduced rainfall by about 10% to 20%.
“The main risk is the possibility of transboundary haze from Kalimantan and Sumatra during this September as well as heatwaves during February or March next year.
“Those venturing outside during this period should wear a hat or carry an umbrella and keep hydrated,” he said.
UKM climatologist Emeritus Prof Dr Fredolin Tangang said the recent wetter-than-normal condition the Klang Valley has experienced was due to the early development phase of El Nino that began in June.
He said drier and hotter weather could impact Malaysia in the next few months with possible heatwaves that disrupt water supply, reduce agricultural harvest and lower fishing yields.
