PETALING JAYA: Wet conditions are expected to dominate in the northern part of Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah in the first half of this year, says the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia).
In its long-term weather outlook for January to June, the department said there is, however, likely to be a reduction in rainfall towards the middle and end of this period.
"(This) is especially for the middle and southern part of the peninsula and Sarawak. Overall, the risk of heavy rain and the development of low pressure systems still exists for the initial part of this weather prediction.
"The impact can be more noticeable if it happens during high tide," it said on its website.
Strong north-east winds have the potential to cause rough seas and high waves in the South China Sea, it added.
MetMalaysia said based on observation of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, a weak La Nina is still ongoing and is expected to continue until at least February.
After that, there is a likelihood of a transition to more neutral sea conditions.
The North-East Monsoon, which began on Nov 13, is expected to last until March.
MetMalaysia added that November and December saw several significant weather episodes due to strong monsoon surges, the development of low pressure systems and atmospheric conditions that supported the increase in moisture.
"As many as six low pressure systems were discovered within this region in November, including Typhoon Kalmaegi, Typhoon FungWong, Tropical Storm Senyar, two tropical depressions and Tropical Storm Koto," it said.
Tropical Storm Senyar, it stressed, was an extremely rare event.
The weather outlook was based on consensus from several weather models, including the CEP Coupled Forecast System Model Version 2 (CFSv2), JMA Ensemble Prediction System (Tokyo Climate Centre), World Meteorological Organisation Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble, European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), Seasonal Climate Forecast, International Research Institute for Climate Society (IRI) dan Seasonal Forecast WRF-CFS MET Malaysia, as well as the El-Niňo Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
