Heat has yet to rise in Negri

Hello there: Mohamad chatting with a family on his campaign rounds at a pasar malam.

SEREMBAN: The contest for the Rembau seat is expected to be most closely watched of the eight parliamentary constituencies in Negri Sembilan in the 15th General Election (GE15).

But after six days of campaigning, it remains a rather subdued affair.

Umno deputy president Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan who is contesting in the Rembau seat is the only other bigwig running in GE15 besides state Pakatan Harapan chief Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun, the candidate for Port Dickson.

Mohamad, popularly known as Tok Mat, has a fight in his hands but is expected to prevail in the five-way contest in the Barisan Nasional’s stronghold.

Joining him in the Rembau election ring are Pakatan’s Jufitri Joha, former Malaysian Youth Council president and state Perikatan Nasional secretary Mohd Nazree Mohd Yunus, Socialist Party of Malaysia’s S. Tinagaran and Ramly Awaluddin of Pejuang.

Mohamad, who served Negri Sembilan as mentri besar for three terms and is into his fourth term as Rantau assemblyman, is hugely popular and expected to win comfortably.

“Despite the crowded field, the Rantau-born Tok Mat should cruise to victory. He has served the people well and has been visiting the constituents regularly even before elections,” said a political observer.

The same observer also pointed out that three of the four state constituencies in Rembau – Rantau, Chembong and Kota – are also under Barisan’s control.

But another observer feels that the real fight is in Paroi, the fourth state seat in Rembau with more than 50,000 voters and won by Pakatan in 2018.

“Some voters believe the narrative that Mohamad had forced (former MP) Khairy Jamaluddin out so that he could contest the seat.

“There may be some protest votes but again, with Pakatan and Perikatan also involved in the contest, Mohamad certainly has the edge,” he said.

In GE14, Khairy won the seat with a 4,364-vote majority.

Apart from Rembau, interesting fights are also expected in Kuala Pilah and Tampin. The seats were previously Barisan strongholds but fell to Pakatan in GE14.

The Kuala Pilah seat, won by Bersatu which was then with Pakatan, could change hands with Barisan fielding Senaling assemblyman Datuk Adnan Abu Hassan to take on incumbent Datuk Eddin Syazlee Shith.

Eddin won the seat with a 200-vote majority although Barisan won four of the five seats under Kuala Pilah then.

“Barisan lost Kuala Pilah in 2018 due to protest votes as some Umno members were not happy with the candidate. This is set to change as Adnan, who is the division deputy chief, is not only a local boy but is popular,” the observer said.

There will be a four-cornered fight in Tampin.

Barisan’s Datuk Mohd Isam Mohd Isa, the Umno division chief and Gemencheh assemblyman, is a local and is said to have an edge over the other contenders – Muhammad Faiz Fadzil (Pakatan), Abdul Halim Abu Bakar (Perikatan) and Zamani Ibrahim (Pejuang).

Port Dickson, a seat held by Pakatan since 2008, will also be an interesting affair with Aminuddin, who is the Mentri Besar, involved in a five-cornered fight.

He will slug it out against state PAS commissioner Rafiei Mustapha (Perikatan), Barisan’s Datuk P. Kamalanathan, Pejuang’s Ahmad Idham Ahmad Nadzri, who is also an actor, director and film producer, and the ever-colourful Abdul Rani Kulup, a social activist and an independent candidate.

One observer said Aminuddin, who is also a local, should win the seat following the good work done by his predecessor Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

“There may also be protest votes against Barisan as the MIC wanted a local to be the candidate instead of Kamalanathan. Perikatan’s Rafiei is also not expected to pose a strong challenge as the party does not have much influence here,” he said.

The contest for Jempol, another Barisan stronghold, will also be closely watched after Umno decided to drop incumbent Datuk Seri Mohd Salim Sharif and replaced him with the division’s deputy chief Datuk Shamshulkahar Mohd Deli.

The majority of the Umno branches there had initially threatened to close their operation centres if the decision was not reversed.

Shamshulkahar, who is also Serting assemblyman, is not expected to have it easy defending the seat in a four-cornered fight.

“If Shamshulkahar gets the full support from Mohd Salim, then it should be an easy win for Barisan,” said the observer.

Barisan should cruise in Jelebu where its incumbent Datuk Seri Jalaluddin Alias is also involved in a four-way fight.

Pakatan is expected to have the upper hand in defending the Seremban and Rasah seats.

Incumbent Seremban MP and DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke is being challenged by Mohd Fadli Che Me (Perikatan), Mohamad Jani Ismail (Pejuang), Wong Yin Ting (Barisan) and Independent Izzat Lesly.

“Although Malays make up slightly more than half the voters here, Loke should cruise to victory as all six state seats under the Seremban parliamentary seat are held by Pakatan,” said the same observer, who described Loke as practically undefeatable.

Loke won the seat with a majority of 30,694 votes in 2018.

Rasah is seeing a three-cornered fight with Pakatan’s incumbent Cha Kee Chin being challenged by Ng Kian Nam (Barisan) and Datuk David Choong Vee Heng (Perikatan).

“Rasah, a mixed constituency, should be a breeze for Pakatan which also controls all five seats in the constituency,” said the political observer.

In GE14, Cha won the seat with a 46,867-vote majority.