GE15 depends on economy

PETALING JAYA: The current economic situation, which has resulted in higher cost of living, is expected to be a heavy influence on the timing of the 15th General Election.

As such, analysts have narrowed down the timeframe of the upcoming national polls to be from September this year to March next year.

A few of them said the incoming hikes in the overnight policy rate (OPR) by Bank Negara Malaysia, that are meant to fight inflation, could somewhat alleviate the rise in cost of living by early next year.

Universiti Sains Malaysia’s political science expert Prof Dr Sivamurugan Pandian said that there were several reasons why the polls could be held before the end of this year.“The economic outlook is currently not so rosy and there may be more uncertainties if it is held later.

“The rakyat will be more hard-pressed with bread-and-butter issues by then,” Sivamurugan said when contacted yesterday.

He cited the example of the 2008 general election when former prime minister Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi decided to hold off calling for the general election amid a global economic downturn.

“This was the first time that Barisan Nasional lost its two-thirds majority in the Dewan Rakyat,” Sivamurugan said.

He said there could be windows of opportunity this September or November for the polls to be held.

Sivamurugan said the Dewan Rakyat would meet between July 18 and Aug 4 where the prime minister could choose to dissolve Parliament to pave the way for the general election within 60 days.

“As the school holidays fall in September, there will be enough time to hold the election,” he said.

He noted that in October 1999, former premier Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad decided to call for early election due to favourable economic conditions.

“Tun immediately called for a general election after tabling the budget in the Dewan Rakyat,” he said, adding that the Chinese business community was supportive of Barisan’s handling of the economic crisis.

The national polls, Sivamurugan said, was held the following month with Barisan securing a super majority of 148 seats in the lower House.

It is a tradition that the budget is unveiled in the Dewan Rakyat on a Friday at the end of October.

Sivamurugan also noted that former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak recently admitted that his decision to delay the general election to almost a full five-year term in 2018 had resulted in Barisan’s crushing defeat.

The current term of the 14th Parliament ends on July 15 next year, paving the way for polls to be held within 60 days from the date of the automatic dissolution of Parliament.

Universiti Malaya’s Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said the longer Barisan waits, the more its electoral performance could be affected.

“Going into July, the opportunity to hold GE15 and Barisan’s chances to win big could get slimmer. However, Barisan can still call for the general election before Budget 2023 is tabled,” he added.

Awang Azman argued that once Budget 2023 is tabled, Barisan’s chances to win big could be slimmer if the federal budget is not well received by the public.

“Because the people and the country need strong policies with long-term plans, not just ad hoc ones like those announced by the government recently,” he said.

Given the present political instability, Awang Azman said an early election was much needed as it could form a stable government with a clear mandate.

He also said the rise in overnight policy rate (OPR) in the coming months was set to increase the cost of living.

“This will not bring any benefit for Barisan and the prime minister’s popularity is expected to be lower due to the present economic situation,” he added.

According to Ambank Research last week, it said a one-off 50 basis points hike in the OPR was highly likely in the coming months.

The current OPR, raised by BNM last week, was at 2.25%.

However, National Professors Council senior fellow Dr Jeniri Amir argued that the national polls would be held in the first quarter of next year, after Chinese New Year on Jan 22 and before the month-long fasting month begins in March.

“Definitely before fasting month as Hari Raya Aidilfitri is after Ramadan. It will be too long.

“Timing is very important in any election,” he said.

Jeniri also said that based on his observation, the polls were unlikely to be called by September this year, despite mounting speculation by some.

“If it’s September, there will be signs,” he said.

Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) secretary-general Datuk Seri Masidi Manjun said there was no such thing as a right time to call for an election in Malaysian politics.

“By far and large, ordinary folks are already frustrated and angry with the spiralling price of consumer goods,” he said.

GRS consists of Sabah Bersatu, Sabah STAR, Sabah Progressive Party, Usno and PBS.

Masidi also said the outcome of GE15 would be determined by Malaysians who would vote based on their observation in politics since GE14 in 2018.

There have been growing calls by some to hold the general election this year, while other parties argued that the current government should serve its full term due to various global uncertainties that could hamper Malaysia’s economic recovery from the pandemic.