Commodities rebound after US payroll


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  • Monday, 09 Sep 2013

THE United States beat the war drums louder as Secretary of State John Kerry tried to garner support from European Union ministers for a military action in Syria.

Meanwhile, US non-farm payroll rose by 169,000 and below expectation, with unemployment rate 7.3% at its lowest since December 2008.

The mist of Federal Reserve’s tapering is setting in the air as we roll into September, though the mixed data may nudge Federal members to decide otherwise.

Gold prices recoiled to 1,415.00 resistance regions early last week, then plunged to 1,365.00 regions amid positive US outlook and increase chances of Fed tapering.

On Friday, the yellow metal rallied to 1390.00 levels after payroll data showed lesser than expected.

This week, we reckon that gold prices are likely to consolidate further between 1,365.00 and 1,415.00 regions amid high level of uncertainty and US rhetoric on impending military action.

Note that the bear is more likely to prevail in the absence of military action.

Silver prices consolidated with volatility last week.

The market traded mostly between 23.000 and 24.500 regions in line with gold.

We reckon that silver prices may move from 23.000 and 24.500 regions in early part of this week while waiting to be led by news outcome.

Technically, we have identified another strong buying interest level at 22.000 if the prices decline below 23.000 supports.

WTI Crude prices rallied again last week and closed the week at 110.26 regions.

The Syrian tension is giving the oil a bullish bias while Friday payroll figure rallied the commodities market as greenback weakened.

This week, we reckon that the war tension will still be the main focus and might trigger strong uptrend impulse if crisis erupts. Technically, we have identified the topside targets at T1—112.00 and T2—115.00 areas. If the rhetoric does not materialise, retracement may draw down at 106.00 levels for quick correction.

Crude Palm Oil Futures (FCPO) on Bursa Derivatives moved on higher sentiment last week as demand for general commodities grew out of war-inflation. The November contract settled at 2,445 with approximate 30,000 turnovers on Friday.

This week, we forecast the market may whipsaw in early week but edge higher towards the weekend. Technically, the trend will probably move from 2,350-2,500 ranges.

Beware of further ascension if panic buying arises due to further demands triggered in crude prices.

 

> Disclaimer: This article is written for general information only. No liability by the contributors or newspaper.

> Dar Wong and Wahyu PY are the research team of PWFOREX.com. You may reach them through www.pwforex.com.

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