Third-quarter growth figures
INVESTORS will be closely watching a slew of Malaysian economic data this week, including third-quarter (3Q) gross domestic product (GDP), inflation and trade figures, alongside the ongoing corporate earnings reporting season.
According to advance estimates released by the Statistics Department, Malaysia’s economy grew 5.3% in 3Q, moderating from 6% in the preceding quarter.
Bloomberg’s consensus estimate also points to 5.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in 3Q, with the final GDP figures due on Nov 18.
Meanwhile, Trading Economics expects Malaysia’s economy to grow 4.7% y-o-y in 4Q, with inflation projected at 2.1% and the trade surplus estimated at RM28bil, based on its global macroeconomic models and analysts’ expectations.
Malaysia’s inflation rate is expected to rise to 2% y-o-y in October from 1.8% in September, according to Bloomberg’s consensus estimate, in line with UOB Global Economics & Markets Research’s forecast.
UOB expects Malaysia’s exports to grow 46% y-o-y in October, moderating from 54.5% in September, while imports are projected to rise 42%, slowing from 52.7% previously.
The trade surplus is forecast to widen to RM35.3bil from RM33.7bil in September.
China data dump
CHINA is set to release a slew of economic data this week, including industrial production, retail sales, property prices and loan prime rates (LPR).
ING expects China’s retail sales growth to moderate to 0.7% y-o-y in October amid weak discretionary spending, while fixed asset investment is projected to decline 6.7% y-o-y on a year-to-date basis, with increased public investment helping to cushion the decline.
Industrial production is expected to remain resilient, with growth holding steady at 5.5% y-o-y.
Meanwhile, China’s 70-city property price data will be closely watched for signs of stabilisation in major cities.
On the monetary policy front, China’s LPRs are expected to remain unchanged on Nov 20, with all eight analysts surveyed by Bloomberg forecasting the one-year and five-year rates to stay at 3% and 3.5%, respectively.
UOB shares this view, citing a low likelihood of near-term policy easing despite weak October inflation.
It said fiscal policy support would remain the near-term focus to stabilise economic growth, following recent mortgage support measures and targeted credit easing.
According to Bloomberg estimates, China’s industrial production growth is expected to moderate to 5.3% y-o-y in October from 5.5% in September, while retail sales growth is projected to slow to 0.8% from 1.1% previously.
