PETALING JAYA: Crude palm oil (CPO) prices are expected to remain above RM4,600 per tonne in November, supported by export demand and a seasonal decline in production, says the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC).
In a statement, it said that palm oil production increased by 16.4% to 2.11 million tonnes in September, supported by higher fresh fruit bunch output and improved oil extraction rates.
However, palm oil production in 2026 is believed to have peaked in September and is expected to decline seasonally over the next five months. Meanwhile, palm oil exports rose 4.3% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2026, despite a 12.1% decline to 1.12 million tonnes in September.
The September decline was mainly due to limited vessel availability in the Strait of Malacca and increased competition from Indonesia. According to the MPOC, Indonesian exporters accelerated shipments ahead of new export regulations announced in June 2026 and a higher export duty scheduled for October following an increase in the reference price.
Looking ahead, shipments are projected to increase significantly during October to December, driven by improving vessel availability and tighter supplies of soft oils.
Lower palm oil prices compared with September highs could also encourage global buyers to lock in future shipments at more favourable prices.
In particular, ongoing logistical disruptions in the Black Sea region continue to restrict sunflower seed processing, limiting sunflower oil availability in the global market over the next few months unless a safe shipping corridor is established.
This is despite the expectations of record global sunflower seed production of 65.3 million tonnes in 2027, with most of the increase coming from the Black Sea region.
In light of these developments, India is expected to rely more heavily on palm oil imports to meet its vegetable oil requirements in the coming months, especially to replenish stocks following the Diwali celebrations in November.
A similar trend is expected in China, where reduced soybean supplies from Brazil could boost palm oil demand.
