KUALA LUMPUR: Crude palm oil (CPO) prices are expected to remain firm above RM4,600 per tonne in November, supported by stronger export demand, seasonal production declines and sustained biodiesel consumption, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC).
MPOC said Malaysia's palm oil production rose 16.4% to 2.11 million tonnes in September, driven by higher fresh fruit bunch output and improved oil extraction rates.
However, production is believed to have peaked in September and is expected to decline seasonally over the next five months, potentially reducing inventories and supporting prices.
"Malaysian palm oil inventories are projected to trend lower from November 2026 through February 2027," it said in a statement.
Palm oil exports fell 12.1% to 1.12 million tonnes in September, mainly due to limited vessel availability in the Strait of Malacca and increased competition from Indonesia.
Despite the monthly decline, cumulative exports rose 4.3% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2026.
MPOC expects exports to recover in the fourth quarter, supported by improving vessel availability, tighter global vegetable oil supplies and lower palm oil prices from September's highs.
It said logistical disruptions in the Black Sea region continue to constrain sunflower oil supplies, while reduced soybean oil availability from South America during the planting season could further support palm oil demand.
India is expected to increase imports to replenish stocks following Diwali in November, while China could also raise palm oil consumption amid reduced soybean supplies from Brazil.
Meanwhile, elevated energy prices continue to support biodiesel demand, particularly in Indonesia.
Citing data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), MPOC said Indonesia's palm oil consumption for biodiesel hit a record 1.35 million tonnes in August, 75% higher than consumption for food applications.
This translates into an annualised requirement of about 16 million tonnes, suggesting progress towards the country's B50 biodiesel blending target.
"Looking ahead, crude palm oil prices are expected to remain firm above RM4,600 per tonne in November, supported by seasonal production declines and sustained biodiesel consumption," MPOC said.
It added that India's recent reduction in vegetable oil import duties could support a recovery in palm oil imports.
However, downside risks include weaker energy prices and softer-than-expected global vegetable oil consumption amid inflationary and economic pressures.
