NEW DELHI: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) keeps its benchmark rate unchanged for a fourth straight review, as expected, waiting to see whether higher energy costs from the Iran war spill over into broader inflation.
The six-member monetary policy committee, headed by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, voted unanimously yesterday to hold the repurchase rate at 5.25%. The decision was predicted by a majority of the 30 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
The committee also retained its neutral policy stance with inflation holding well within the RBI’s 2% to 6% tolerance band.
The RBI has stood apart from many regional peers by keeping interest rates unchanged since the conflict in the Middle East began, even as counterparts from Japan to Australia and Indonesia tightened policy.
The RBI views the war as a temporary supply shock, arguing monetary policy should respond only if higher energy costs trigger more broad-based inflation.
With growth remaining among the strongest of any major economy and inflation still within the RBI’s comfort zone, the central bank has room to wait.
While consumer prices remain within the RBI’s comfort zone, retail inflation breached its 4% target for the first time in 17 months in June.
Figures for July are due next Wednesday as signs emerge that price pressures may prove more persistent.
The Finance Ministry last week warned that inflation was broadening beyond food.
Separately, India’s largest consumer goods companies are preparing a second consecutive round of price increases as they pass on higher input costs.
As a result, many economists predict the central bank will begin its tightening cycle when it next meets in October.
The last time the RBI raised rates was in February 2023. — Bloomberg
