BUENOS AIRES: Eight years, three deals and US$57bil since the last International Monetary Fund (IMF) leader came to Argentina, Kristalina Georgieva arrives in Buenos Aires to see President Javier Milei’s economic revival for herself.
Times have changed for the better between the IMF and its largest debtor.
Yet the real test – repayment – is about to begin.
That’s raising questions about whether the IMF can ever get out of Argentina, or vice versa, and if Georgieva can turn a debacle into a crowning achievement.
She’s visiting Milei at somewhat of a goldilocks moment for his government, and her first trip there as IMF managing director is a fact of that.
Argentina’s bonds are up, inflation is down and the central bank is rebuilding its stockpile of cash needed to repay the IMF.
The economy is growing, albeit unevenly, and Georgieva will see Argentina’s big success story: an oil boom in Patagonia attracting billions of investment.
Georgieva expressed optimism on Monday that Argentina could finally start to exit its cycle of repetitive borrowing.
She even recalled about her first week at the IMF in October 2019 that included a meeting about the South American nation’s ability to repay.
Now, she sees no need for Argentina to seek additional financing from the IMF before the 2027 presidential elections beyond its current US$20bil programme.
“We may be on a good track for Argentina to join the club of emerging markets that have borrowed from the IMF, reformed their economies, and borrowed no more,” Georgieva said at a press conference.
“I don’t see that lender of last resort to be triggered in 2027.”
Her arrival would’ve been hard to envision just three years ago when IMF staffers saw a “full-blown crisis” in the run up to the presidential election with inflation over 100% and a deep recession underway.
After 23 programmes in almost 70 years, the IMF is still reviled in Argentina and seen as a scapegoat for the country’s crises where the institution was involved.
Georgieva inherited Argentina’s IMF debts upon taking the post in 2019 after her predecessorfailed to rescue a previous administration with a record bailout.
A sequel agreement in 2022 tailored to refinance the previous programme arguably went worse as the crisis deepened.
Milei secured his deal in April 2025.
In September, Argentina will start repaying principal, bringing payments along with interest up to US$3bil for the remainder of 2026.
That figure more than doubles next year and the next administration will owe at least US$9.5bil a year from 2028 to 2031, according to the IMF.
Payments are scheduled until 2042 for now.
Former IMF officials say just about everything needs to go right for Milei if he intends to end Argentina’s reliance on the IMF at some point.
“If Argentina can come up with the dollars it needs to pay back the IMF and bondholders and creditors, and if Milei emerges victorious in next year’s elections, the cycle will be broken,” said Douglas Rediker, a former US representative at the IMF. — Bloomberg
