KUALA LUMPUR: Fitch Solutions company BMI has projected that ASEAN passenger electric vehicle (EV) sales will rise to almost 690,000 units by 2030 and 916,997 units by 2035 from 419,547 units in 2025.
The projection reflects EV penetration rising to 22.7 per cent of passenger vehicle sales by the end of the forecast period.
"As EV adoption accelerates across South East Asia, ASEAN is evolving from an emerging demand centre into an increasingly important manufacturing and supply-chain hub.
"Strong demographics, rising incomes and supportive government policies are driving rapid growth in vehicle electrification, while the expansion of Chinese automakers and the localisation strategies adopted by regional governments are reshaping the competitive landscape,” it said in a note today.
BMI said Vietnam and Thailand will remain the region's largest EV markets, forecast to jointly account for more than 72 per cent of ASEAN passenger EV sales in 2026, supported by strong policy backing and expanding vehicle availability.
"However, growth will become increasingly diversified. By 2035, Vietnam and Thailand will see the combined share of ASEAN passenger EV sales decline to 64 per cent, as Malaysia and Indonesia capture a larger share of demand,” it said.
Malaysia is particularly well positioned to lead this growth outside the two dominant markets, supported by one of ASEAN's most affluent consumer bases, with 90 per cent of Malaysian households estimated to earn more than US$10,000 (US$1=RM4.07) in disposable income by 2030, against 86 per cent in 2025, BMI said.
"While the expiry of tax exemptions for fully imported EVs may create some near-term pricing pressure, the impact is likely to be moderated by the dominance of Mainland China-produced EVs and China-made Teslas, which remain highly price competitive within the Malaysian market.
"Combined with intense competition among Chinese brands and improving EV affordability, this should support EVs capturing an increasing share of new vehicle purchases over the medium term,” said BMI.
Looking at the big macro picture, the report said ASEAN’s EV industry opportunities extend well beyond vehicle sales; the region is already a critical supplier of battery and EV materials.
Indonesia and the Philippines accounted for more than 68 per cent of global nickel mine production in 2024, while Indonesia has become the world's second-largest refined nickel producer, it said.
"ASEAN also has significant exposure to rare earth elements (REEs). Vietnam accounted for roughly 20 per cent of global REE reserves in 2023, while Myanmar, Thailand and Malaysia are established REE producers.
"These resources are used in permanent-magnet EV motors and advanced vehicle electronics, strengthening ASEAN's strategic importance as automakers seek to diversify supply chains and reduce dependence on concentrated sources of supply,” it added. - Bernama
