GDP
A SLEW of economic data is due this week, including the final reading of Malaysia’s first-quarter of financial year 2026 (1Q26) gross domestic product (GDP), retail sales, unemployment rate and current account balance.
Economists project the country’s economy to grow by 5.3% in 1Q26, based on advance estimates released by the Statistics Department.
Bloomberg estimates Malaysia’s 1Q26 GDP growth at 5.1% year-on-year (y-o-y), while UOB Global Economics & Markets Research projects growth of 5.3%, in line with the advance estimate and compared with 6.3% growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Trading Economics expects Malaysia’s current account balance to reach RM15.5bil by the end of the quarter, while retail sales growth and the unemployment rate have been projected at 3.2% and 3.1%, respectively, based on its global macro models and analysts’ expectations.
Trump-Xi summit
US President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit China on May 14 and 15, marking the first visit by a sitting US president to the country in more than a decade.
According to reports, the Trump administration is inviting chief executive officers from Nvidia, Apple, Exxon, Boeing and other big companies to accompany the president on his trip to China.
China is also expected to release its inflation and trade data this week, with ING forecasting export growth of about 6.5% and imports rising 20.4%, resulting in a trade surplus of US$71.6bil.
ING expects a slight y-o-y increase in trade with the US.
It also forecasts China’s consumer price index (CPI) to remain unchanged at 1.0% y-o-y, while producer price index (PPI) growth is expected to accelerate further to 1.9% y-o-y.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg estimates China’s CPI to ease to 0.8% y-o-y in April from 1% in March, while PPI is forecast to accelerate to 1.8% from 0.5% previously.
India data
INDIA is expected to release several economic indicators for April, including CPI, unemployment rate and wholesale price data.
Bloomberg estimates India’s April CPI inflation at 3.74% y-o-y, up from 3.4% in March, while wholesale price inflation is forecast at 5.36%, compared with 3.88% in the previous month.
ING expects India’s inflation to accelerate modestly, with retail petrol prices remaining capped and core inflation staying contained.
The bank said the main driver would likely be second-round effects from higher oil prices on food inflation.
