KUALA LUMPUR: Crude palm oil (CPO) prices are projected to consolidate within the range of RM4,000 per tonne to RM4,300 per tonne in March 2026, supported by tightening near-term supply, improving Indian demand and firm US soybean oil prices.
However, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) said ample global soybean supply and rising Chinese soybean oil exports may limit gains.
“The country (China) became a net exporter of soybean oil for the first time in 2025 and is expected to maintain this position in 2026, with exports projected at around 850,000 tonnes.
“India accounted for nearly half of China’s soybean oil exports last year,” it said in a statement yesterday.
Meanwhile, MPOC said palm oil fundamentals are expected to improve gradually in the coming months.
It said firmer Malaysian exports in the first quarter and Indonesia’s front-loading of shipments ahead of the March export levy hike are projected to reduce palm oil inventories in both countries.
It said Malaysia’s palm oil production eased seasonally to 1.58 million tonnes in January, down 13.8% month-on-month, but exports strengthened to 1.48 million tonnes, up 11.4% from December 2025, marking the second-highest monthly export volume in the past 12 months.
“The increase in exports was driven primarily by stronger demand from India and Egypt, with shipments to India reaching a 15-month high and exports to Egypt climbing to a 13-month high,” it said.
On the demand side, India is expected to shift consumption back toward palm oil following improved price competitiveness from late 2025, said MPOC.
It said palm oil consumption in India is forecast to rise by 800,000 tonnes in 2026, while soybean and sunflower oil consumption is expected to decline by a combined 400,000 tonnes.
“January 2026 data reflects this shift, with India’s palm oil imports rising to a four-month high, while soybean oil imports falling to an 11-month low,” it said. — Bernama
