KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the second quarter of this year (2Q25) is projected to hit 4.3%, driven by the agriculture sector’s recovery, and expansion in the services, manufacturing and construction sectors, says Hong Leong Investment Bank Research (HLIB Research).
The projection is slightly below the Statistics Department’s advance estimate and consensus median forecast of 4.5%.
HLIB Research said on the demand side, growth is anticipated to be primarily led by private consumption, and volatile import duties are likely to contribute positively to GDP.
“For now, we maintain our GDP growth forecast for this year at 4%, pending the release of the full 2Q25 GDP print on Aug 15,” the research house said yesterday.
It said growth will be anchored by resilient domestic demand, steady employment and wage gains, and supportive fiscal measures, including a one-off RM100 cash transfer for all adults to be used from Aug 31 to Dec 31.
Assuming that the entire amount of the cash transfer is spent, HLIB Research estimates that a total of RM2bil in spending would raise private consumption by 0.2 percentage points.
“Nevertheless, downside risks to growth persist, stemming from global trade headwinds and policy uncertainty,” it said.
Meanwhile, Maybank Investment Bank Research also predicted Malaysia’s GDP in 2Q25 to be at 4.3%, reflecting slower growth in the services and construction sectors, firmer performances from the manufacturing and agriculture sectors, and smaller contraction in the mining sector. — Bernama
