KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the second quarter of 2025 (2Q 2025) is projected to be at 4.3 per cent, driven by the agriculture sector’s recovery, and expansion in the services, manufacturing and construction sectors, said Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd (HLIB).
The projection is slightly below the Department of Statistics Malaysia’s (DOSM) advance estimate and consensus median forecast of 4.5 per cent.
HLIB said on the demand side, growth is anticipated to be primarily led by private consumption, and volatile import duties are likely to contribute positively to GDP.
"For now, we maintain our 2025 GDP growth forecast at 4.0 per cent, pending the release of full 2Q 2025 GDP print on Aug 15," it said in a research note today.
It said the growth will be anchored by resilient domestic demand, steady employment and wage gains, and supportive fiscal measures, including a one-off RM100 cash transfer for all adults to be used from Aug 31-Dec 31, 2025.
Assuming that the entire amount of the cash transfer is spent, HLIB estimates that a total of RM2 billion in spending would raise private consumption by 0.2 percentage points.
"Nevertheless, downside risks to growth persist, stemming from global trade headwinds and policy uncertainty," it said.
Meanwhile, Maybank Investment Bank Bhd also predicted Malaysia's GDP in 2Q 2025 to be at 4.3 per cent, reflecting slower growth in the services and construction sectors, firmer manufacturing and agriculture sectors’ performance and smaller contraction in the mining sector. - Bernama
