KUALA LUMPUR: The Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) is forecast to remain unchanged at 3.00 per cent throughout 2025, said Public Investment Bank Bhd (PIVB).
It said this is consistent with its baseline expectations for a steady 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast of 4.9 per cent and 2.4 per cent inflation versus 5.1 per cent and 1.8 per cent a year ago respectively.
In its Economic Update research note, PIVB said with domestic activity broadly aligned with Bank Negara Malaysia's (BNM) projections and downside risks to growth still present, it anticipates the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) would adopt a cautious stance and keep policy settings unchanged in the near term.
"A wait-and-see approach is likely as BNM monitors external developments, particularly those related to trade and tariff measures," said the investment bank.
It further said in the absence of material shocks to the growth or inflation trajectory, policy normalisation is not expected.
"The economic implications of the United States (US) countervailing tariffs and semiconductor-related trade actions would be closely watched, given their potential impact on Malaysia’s external sector.
"These factors would be critical in shaping the monetary policy outlook ahead," said PIVB.
Similarly, CIMB Securities Sdn Bhd in its Treasury and Markets Research note, reiterated its view of an extended OPR pause at 3.00 per cent throughout 2025.
It said amid significant challenges forecasting 2025 due to heightened global policy uncertainties, as well as the opposing effects of supply shocks on growth and inflation, BNM guided the monetary policy would be data dependent.
"The positive output gap (2025: 0.5 per cent, 2024: 0.4 per cent), driven by sustained strength in domestic demand, suggests that the monetary policy will likely be reactive, rather than pre-emptive, to global and domestic policy developments," said CIMB Securities. - Bernama
