BEIJING: China’s mostly coal-based thermal power generation is set to fall in 2025 for the first time in a decade, some analysts estimate, though they caution that extreme weather or stronger than expected industrial growth could upend that forecast.
That would be a positive signal for the decarbonisation of China’s power sector, which makes up some 60% of its emissions.
The country plans for its overall carbon emissions to peak before 2030 and to fall to a net zero before 2060.
China is expected to meet or exceed 2024’s record increase in renewable energy capacity as developers rush to meet the targets of its 14th five-year plan by the end of this year, which some analysts say creates the conditions for renewables to meet all new power demand this year.
The rapid build-out led three out of four analysts who spoke with Reuters to forecast a plateau or fall in thermal power output, as renewables meet the continuing growth in overall electricity demand, estimated at 6% to 7.5% by four analysts and an industry group. Last year’s growth was 6.8%.
The last time thermal power output fell year-on-year was in 2015, when overall energy demand growth slowed amid a stock market crash and slowing economic growth. But analysts caution that another summer of extreme heat could drive a fresh increase in coal use.
Last year, power demand overshot forecasts after a blistering heat wave that drove power demand for air conditioners. — Reuters
