Odds on June Fed rate cut dip below 50%

Making an impact: A General Motors assembly line in Romulus, Michigan. The manufacturing report feeds into the narrative coming out of last week whereby the economy’s resilience enables the Fed to be patient, an analyst says. — Reuters

NEW YORK: Bond traders priced in less monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year and briefly set the odds of a first move in June below 50%, after a gauge of US manufacturing activity showed expansion for the first time since 2022.

The amount of Fed rate cuts priced into swap contracts for this year dropped to fewer than 65 basis points – less than Fed policymakers themselves have forecast – after a report on ISM manufacturing for March exceeded all estimates in Bloomberg’s survey of economists.