Auto TIV to decline in 2024, says RHB

KUALA LUMPUR: RHB Research is leaving its total industry volume (TIV) projection for the auto sector unchanged despite a strong showing in January as it expects the sales performance to cool over the coming months.

The research firm forecasts a 2024 TIV volume of 625,000, which is a 22% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline from the 2023 TIV of 800,000 amid a lack of catalysts to bring the sales figures to another high in 2024.

It says the current TIV run rate is unlikely to be sustained as major marques such as Perodua and Toyota have seen declines in their order backlogs from 190,000 and 52,000 units in May 2023 to 129,000 and 28,000 at end-December 2023.

"The easing backlog of major marques such as Perodua and Toyota supports our thesis that TIV in 2024F will likely soften y-o-y, especially after the two consecutive record-high years ie 2022 and 2023," it said in a sector update.

However, RHB expects 1Q24 earnings to be strong y-o-y due to the backlog clearance by carmakers, although it will remain weaker q-o-q due to seasonality.

RHB remained "neutral" on the sector premised on the weaker TIV performance as the normalisation of sales volume takes place.

It kept Bermaz Auto Bhd as its top sector pick as it likes its dividend yield of about 10% and expects its car sales to remain resilient against other marques.

Reviewing the performance of auto companies in 4Q23, RHB said three counters under its coverage - Sime Darby Bhd, MBM Resources Bhd and Bermaz Auto - came in line with expectations, while Tan Chong Motor Bhd missed after reporting a wider loss.

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auto , TIV , RHB , Perodua , Toyota


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