Processing tra fish at Tran Han Co Ltd — VNA/VNS
HANOI: Vietnam’s economy is projected to grow by 6% this year, rebounding from a slowdown in 2023, driven by the expectation of export recovery, as per the January update from the Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (Amro).
The Vietnamese economy faced significant challenges last year due to a slowdown in exports but rebounded in the second half, exceeding expectations with a growth rate of 5.1%.
“We anticipate this positive momentum to continue in the coming year, projecting a growth rate of 6%. While this is slightly lower than the official target, we attribute it to a more moderate pace of export recovery,” said Amro’s chief economist, Hoe Ee Khor, last Thursday.
However, Khor highlighted that the high concentration of manufacturing exports makes Vietnam vulnerable to external shocks, as seen last year with the downturn in electronics and manufacturing goods.
To mitigate this vulnerability, Khor recommended Vietnam diversify its export markets and move up the value chain by engaging in higher-value manufacturing exports. This strategy will help ensure resilience and sustained growth of the Vietnamese economy.
Exports were one of the three important pillars of Vietnam’s economic growth in 2023, alongside investment and consumption.
The country’s exports witnessed a double-digit reduction in the first quarter of 2023 but started to pick up since the second quarter. From July to the end of the year, export value reached more than US$30bil each month.
With a growth forecast of 6% in 2024, Vietnam ranked third in Amro’s 2024 gross domestic product growth forecast, trailing behind the Philippines (6.3%) and Cambodia (6.2%).
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is expected to remain a crucial driver of economic expansion. Foreign investment inflows into Vietnam in 2023 saw a significant increase of 32% to nearly US$36.62bil.
Vietnam remains a preferred destination for FDI, especially with China. — Viet Nam News/ANN
