The Week Ahead

IPI information

THE industrial production index (IPI) for September 2023, due tomorrow, is likely to suggest a slowdown in manufacturing activity.

According to analysts, the IPI is expected to contract 0.1% year-on-year (y-o-y). The IPI inched down by 0.3% in August 2023.

The seasonally adjusted S&P Global Malaysia manufacturing purchasing managers’ index was unchanged at 46.8 in October.

The IPI is expected to be 2.1% by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analyst expectations.

The Statistics Department is also expected to release the unemployment rate, retail sales and monthly manufacturing statistics this week.

Meanwhile, Bank Negara is expected to release its international reserves as at Oct 31 tomorrow.

GDP data galore

INDONESIA, the Philippines and Hong Kong are expected to release their gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2023 (3Q) this week.

Bloomberg estimates Indonesia’s GDP to grow 5.03% y-o-y from 5.17% in 2Q. It also estimates the Philippines’ GDP to expand 4.8% y-o-y from 4.3% in 2Q.

According to ING, Indonesia’s growth is likely to accelerate in 3Q, and GDP will likely settle at 5.2% y-o-y.

It added that the Philippines’ GDP growth could slow to 4.2% y-o-y.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research expects Indonesia’s GDP to expand 5.1% y-o-y with the Philippines’ GDP to grow 4.5% y-o-y.

China’s inflation, trade figures

DATA due from China this week include the consumer price index (CPI), production price index (PPI), M2 money supply and trade figures.

According to a Bloomberg survey, the CPI is expected to contract 0.2% y-o-y in October from 0% in September, while the PPI is to contract 2.8% y-o-y from 2.5% in September.

ING said Chinese inflation should come in slightly above the zero level on the assumption of a 0.1% month-on-month increase and rise to 0.2% y-o-y. It expects China’s export growth rate to come in at about minus 3.7%.