PETALING JAYA: Total vehicle sales rose 5% year-on-year to 68,156 units in September from 65,160 units last year, according to the latest Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) statistics.
However, at 68,156 units, the total industry volume (TIV) was 6.4% lower than August 2023, which was at 72,809 units, the association said.
“The lower TIV of September 2023 can be attributed to consumers adopting a wait-and-see attitude in anticipation of incentives under the Budget 2024 announcement.
“However, the overall total vehicle registration for year-to-date September 2023 (at 571,767 units) is still 11% higher compared with 514,449 units for the similar corresponding period in 2022,” it said.
Of the total number of vehicles sold last month, 61,560 units comprised passenger cars, while 6,596 units consisted of commercial vehicles.
In September 2022, a total of 57,521 passenger cars and 7,639 commercial vehicles were sold.
Additionally, the MAA said total industry production recorded in September 2023 (at 69,133 units) was slightly higher compared with 67,912 units in August 2023.
For the month of October 2023, the MAA forecasts sales to be on par with September 2023’s level.
In July, the MAA revised its TIV forecast for 2023 upwards to 725,000 units from 650,000 units in January, on the back of a stable economic outlook, new model launches and further improvement in the automotive industry supply chain environment.
Meanwhile, MIDF Research in a recent report said it remains “neutral” on the broader auto sector in the near term.
“We believe the strong TIV numbers this year have largely played out, while order backlog growth seems to have peaked with initial signs of receding.
“Our sector picks are Bermaz Auto Bhd
(BAuto) and MBM Resources Bhd, as these stocks remain sector laggards trading at a 30% discount to the mean price-to-earnings ratio.”
MIDF Research said BAuto remains its tactical favourite, riding on the weak yen and completely-knocked-down model expansion, while its dividend yield of 9% is attractive.
“We also like MBM Resources as a cheap proxy to Perodua, which has a high model localisation rate with minimal foreign exchange risk
“It also has the strongest backlog bookings among the major players stretching up to six to seven months.
“Dividend yield is attractive at 8%,” said the research house.
Meanwhile, RHB Research in a report said the order backlog for the major marques such as Toyota and Perodua has started easing, despite a robust year-to-date 2023.
“Perodua’s order backlog as of February, May and August stood at 220,000, 190,000 and 155,000, while Toyota’s was at 50,000, 52,000 and 40,000.
“The softening backlog supports our thesis that TIV in 2024 will likely soften year-on-year, especially after two strong years in 2022 and 2023.”
Despite upcoming launches of new electric vehicles later this year and next year, RHB Research said it does not think this will significantly move the 2024 TIV needle.
“We see a few compelling factors for 2024 auto sales in breach of another high. We think the strong TIV performance in 2022 and year-to-date 2023 reflects pent-up consumer discretionary demand left over from 2020 and 2021.
“Our 725,000 TIV forecast for 2023 implies a four-year (2020-2023) average annual TIV of 621,000 units, which is largely in line with the 10-year pre-pandemic average of 618,000 units.”
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