The Week Ahead

Budget day

FOCUS will be on Budget 2024 which will be tabled on Friday.

UOB Global Economics and Markets Research expects a narrower budget deficit target which will align with the objectives of the Madani Economy, New Industrial Master Plan 2030 and National Energy Transition Roadmap.

According to RHB Research, the annual national budget is likely to feature a delicate balancing act by the government between continued economic support and ensuring debt sustainability.

In a research note, RHB said the budget is likely to remain mildly expansionary with substantial support towards selected priority sectors and continued assistance to ease the financial burdens of targeted groups.

RHB Research has revised its 2024 fiscal deficit projection to 4.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) versus its previous estimate of 4.8% of GDP.

The Statistics Department is expected to announce data on industrial production index (IPI), manufacturing statistics and retail sales for August this week.

According to Trading Economics’ global macro models and analyst expectations, the IPI is expected to be down 1.3% by the end of this quarter.

In the long term, the IPI is projected to trend around 3.6% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025, according to its econometric models.

Singapore GDP

ING expects Singapore’s third quarter GDP growth to settle at 0.6% year-on-year (y-o-y), rising 0.8% from the previous quarter.

It said retail sales were the lone bright spot for Singapore as they had managed to post modest growth for the quarter.

The return of visitors to Singapore could be a factor supporting retail sales, according to ING.

Meanwhile, UOB forecasts 3Q23 real GDP to expand by a milder 0.4% y-o-y, although stronger in the quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted terms at 0.3%.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore is likely to retain its current policy setting this week.