The Week Ahead

GDP in focus

THE country’s economic data for the second quarter (2Q) of the year will be announced on Friday.

Bloomberg estimates gross domestic product (GDP) to expand 3.5% in 2Q from 5.6% in 1Q.

RHB Research has revised 2Q23 GDP forecast downward to 3.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) versus the previous estimate of 4.5% y-o-y, in view of weaker-than-expected performance in both manufacturing and services sector activities.

The research house maintained its recovery view for 2H23 with GDP growth averaging at 5.2% y-o-y.

CGS-CIMB Research projects 2Q23 GDP to expand by 3.3% y-o-y from a 5.6% y-o-y growth in 1Q23.

Meanwhile, TA Research expects 2Q23 real GDP to expand at a moderate pace of 2.8% y-o-y from its initial expectations of 3.2% y-o-y. The research house’s full-year GDP growth rate target for 2023 is 4.2%.

China industrial production

CHINA is expected to release a slew of data this week including industrial production (IP), retail sales, money supply, unemployment rate and new home prices.

According to Bloomberg estimates, IP is estimated to grow 4.3% y-o-y from 4.4% in June while retail sales to grow 4.2% y-o-y from 3.1% in June.

IP is expected to be 5.10% by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations.

Central bank meetings

THE Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) will decide on their monetary policy this week.

According to a Bloomberg survey, all 14 economists polled expect the RBNZ to keep its official cash rate unchanged at 5.50%.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research expects the central bank to stay on pause this week and for the rest of 2023.

According to ING, BSP is likely to extend a pause but persistent upside risks to inflation outlook could give governor Eli Remolona a reason to stay hawkish.

ING said headline inflation has been trending lower and could be within target as early as September. This would be the main reason the BSP holds rates at 6.25%.