Fitch revises tin price forecast upward

BMI said the International Tin Association has cautioned that Myanmar's suspension of mining activities could threaten close to 10% of global tin concentrate supplies.— Reuters

KUALA LUMPUR: BMI Country Risk & Industry Research, a unit of Fitch Solutions, has revised its tin price forecast for 2023 upwards to US$25,000 (RM115,438) a tonne from US$20,000 (RM92,350) a tonne, as a number of regulatory changes point to a looming supply crunch in the global tin market.

In a statement, it said the Wa militia in Myanmar, the world’s third-largest tin producer, has announced a suspension of tin mining activities from August 2023, citing the need to protect remaining resources after years of mining.

“The International Tin Association has cautioned that this could threaten close to 10% of global tin concentrate supplies. Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of tin, has announced a proposed ban on the exports of tin ingots from June 2023, although this has not been confirmed yet.

“The combined impending fall of Myanmar and Indonesia’s exports of tin has significantly boosted sentiment, with tin prices hovering around US$25,451 (RM117,520) a tonne as of May 19, 2023, and we expect further upside ahead,” it said. — Bernama