The week ahead

IPI data

THIS holiday-shortened week will see the release of Malaysia’s industrial production index (IPI) and the manufacturing sales data for August.

The Statistics Department is also expected to release the unemployment rate and retail sales this week.

Malaysia’s IPI rose 12.5% in July 2022 as compared to the same month of the previous year, while the unemployment rate declined to 3.7% in July 2022, the lowest since February 2020.

According to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations, the IPI is expected to be 3.5% and the unemployment rate 4.2% by end of this quarter.

Singapore GDP

SINGAPORE is expected to release its third quarter (3Q) advance gross domestic product or GDP estimates on Friday.

Bloomberg estimates a growth of 3.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) and 0.7% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q). Singapore’s economy grew 4.4% y-o-y in the second quarter of 2022.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research expects 3Q growth to be 4.2% y-o-y and 1.3% q-o-q.

ING said growth in Singapore may settle at 3% y-o-y with q-o-q growth almost flat. Retail sales have held up decently in the quarter as have non-oil domestic exports.

China figures

CHINA’S inflation, Caixin services purchasing managers’ index, external trade and loan data are scheduled to be released this week.

According to ING, China’s inflation should see a slight pick-up to 2.7% y-o-y in September as the economy gradually recovers.

It noted that external demand for China’s exports has been weaker due to elevated global inflation.

ING said China’s loan data should show another strong month of loan growth, likely due to more lending to small medium enterprises and the agricultural sector.

The research house does not expect any change for the one-year medium-term lending facility rate (currently at 2.75%).