The Week Ahead - unemployment data, China's PMI, South Korea's inflation

Unemployment rate

THE labour force is expected to improve in February 2022 with more economic and social activities during the month.

The Statistics Department is expected to release the statistics of the labour force for February 2022 on Friday.

The unemployment rate in Malaysia is expected to be at 4.2% by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts’ expectations.

The number of unemployed persons in the country in January had declined to 680,400, bringing the unemployment rate to 4.2%.

Meanwhile, Bank Negara is expected to announce its international reserves as at March 31 on April 7. The central bank’s international reserves amounted to US$115.2bil (RM485.05bil) as at March 15.

China data

CHINA is expected to release a slew of data, including the Caixin services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) and foreign reserves for March 2022.

Bloomberg estimates the Caixin services PMI to ease to 49.8 in March from 50.2 in February. Readings below 50 indicate a contraction in business activity from the prior month, while those above 50 reflect expansion.

Inflation

SOUTH Korea’s headline consumer price index (CPI) likely picked up to 4% year-on-year in March from February’s 3.7%, according to Moody’s Analytics.

It said higher food and energy costs are expected to be the primary drivers of the acceleration, a situation mirrored throughout the region.

Monetary policy decisions

ALL seven economists polled in a Bloomberg survey expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep the cash rate target unchanged at 0.1%.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research expects the cash rate to remain unchanged.

However, the upgrade to its inflation forecast, alongside an even tighter labour market, has led UOB to bring forward its RBA rate hike call. UOB now sees the cash rate target being lifted by 15 basis points (bps) in August and then by 25bps in November.