The Week Ahead - Trade figures, OMI data, GDP reports


Uptrend: Container ships sit docked next to gantry cranes at Port Klang. Malaysia’s total trade in September 2021 surged 25.5%. ― Bloomberg

Trade figures

EXTERNAL trade statistics and the producer price index (PPI) for October 2021 alongside corporate earnings will dominate this week’s data calendar. The Statistics Department is expected to release trade data today and PPI tomorrow.

Analysts expect trade surplus to be around RM26.9bil in October from an-all time high of RM26.1bil in September 2021.

Malaysia’s total trade in September 2021 surged 25.5%, reaching RM195.5bil as compared to RM155.8bil in September 2020.

Also in focus this week will be the November reading of the IHS Markit manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI), a gauge of how the manufacturing sector is doing.

The Malaysian manufacturing sector in October recorded the strongest expansion in new orders since April and the first rise in production in six months, according to IHS Markit. The headline Malaysia manufacturing PMI soared to 52.2 in October 2021 from 48.1 in September 2021.

PMI data

ASIA-Pacific economies will get a fresh set of PMI updates for November this week.

IHS Markit said the data would be keenly watched for sustained growth amid the recovery from the latest Delta wave and for any signs of supply constraints abating.

It noted that Australia and Japan had seen flash PMIs indicate faster growth in November, as the recovery from the latest Covid-19 Delta wave continued.

Manufacturing in China - File picManufacturing in China - File pic

Asean countries will similarly be observed as to whether October’s recovery momentum has been sustained, with sub-indices offering particularly important clues on the supply chain situation amid persistent price pressures and lengthy lead times.

GDP reports

INDIA and Australia are expected to release their third-quarter (Q3) gross domestic product (GDP) data tomorrow. South Korea will release its final Q3 GDP on Dec 2.

Bloomberg estimates India’s GDP to expand 8.1% year-on-year (y-o-y), while Australia’s GDP to grow 3% y-o-y.

ING said India’s GDP report will be heavily affected by Covid-19 and the timing of lockdowns and reopening.

Base effects drop out sharply from India’s Q3’21 annual comparison, which will bring the y-o-y growth rate down, but this is partially offset by a strong bounce back from the Delta wave which had ravaged India’s economy in Q2’21.

China manufacturing numbers

CHINA is expected to release its official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI surveys for November tomorrow. The private sector Caixin manufacturing PMI is also due this week.

According to a Bloomberg poll, the manufacturing PMI is expected to ease further to 51.4 in November from 52.4 in October, while the non-manufacturing PMI may improve to 49.6 from 49.2 in October.

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